Switching to hotter conditions is a new challenge for the agricultural sector in the South African region.

One expert expressed concern about this shift from favorable rainfall to drier conditions amid the deepening energy crisis that continues to plague various parts of the agricultural sector.

South Africa, a net grain exporter in the South African Development Community (SADC) region, is the epicenter of drought.

More than eight people are reported to have died in the heat wave that swept the country in recent days. Temperatures are above 40°C in some areas. “We are concerned about the effects of the extreme heat that parts of South Africa are experiencing,” said Michael Currin, Acting Executive Director of the Government Communications and Information Systems.

Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz), said the drought challenge from El Niño will not be limited to South Africa, but will extend across southern Africa.

He emphasized that recent severe drought cycles are increasing food insecurity in a regional block of 16 countries with an estimated population of 379.69 million.

“This is especially dangerous if the upcoming summer season is dominated by drought,” said Cirobo.

He urged policymakers in the region to recognize this looming challenge and plan accordingly to help communities that rely heavily on agriculture. In South Africa, Sihlobo said of even greater concern that irrigated agricultural areas face constant disruption from load shedding.

The country, the region’s largest economy, is experiencing the worst series of load shedding on record as his Eskom of utilities struggles to meet demand.

From 2019/2020 to 2022/2023 he had four good seasons with above average rainfall caused by La Niña.

These supported agriculture and increased yields of various crops, fruits and vegetables. Livestock also benefited from the improved pastures. “It is unusual to have La Niña four seasons in a row,” explained Shifrobo.

“A typical cycle consists of his two wet seasons, followed by a normal-to-dry season.”

Sihlobo noted that apart from current trends, the only similar periods in the recent past included the 2007/2008, 2008/2009 and he 2009/2010 production seasons.

 Scientists at Columbia University’s International Institute for Climate and Society have warned that an El Niño could occur later this year.

 In an update on January 19, the institute found that the probability of El Niño remains low (44% chance) from May to July 2023, but after that it drops from 53% to 57%. We showed that the range of probabilities would be the dominant category.

South Africa is one of the regions most affected by climate change. This causes severe droughts and hurricanes.

The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) reports that irregular rainfall since November has caused “abnormal droughts” in most of Botswana, central and southern Zimbabwe, southern Mozambique and north-central South Africa. Did.

Some of these areas have been noted to present an “extraordinary heat hazard”.