Quote: Daneel Rossouw, Head of Sales: Agriculture at Nedbank Commercial Banking

At the Agriculture roundtable webinar Nedbank hosted in late January 2025, presenters from both BFAP and Agbiz cautioned that the Q3 decline in growth was likely highly overstated. We believe the strong bounce back of 17,2% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the last quarter of 2024 confirms their statements. This ‘mismatch’ of quarterly figures was largely due to the late deliveries of some field crops (the 2024 harvest and resulting deliveries occurred later than in 2023). Q4 performance was also boosted by improved performance of the livestock and fruit sectors.

These numbers should also be read with reference to the 2024 trade balance, which saw a decline from 2023 despite more exports, with imports growing substantially in 2024 because of higher value and volumes of commodities such as wheat, palm oil, rice and poultry. However, the bounce back in Q4 is encouraging and will hopefully be repeated in Q1 2025 taking into account a promising export season for fruit and table grapes. ‘

As an example, in Q1 2024, agriculture grew by 13,5% due to strong horticulture performance. In addition, the fact that the summer season crop estimate is up on last year due to favourable rainfall received by most regions compared to the drought experienced last year has also generated positive sentiment that continued growth in agricultural GDP is expected in 2025. Additionally, the improved rainfall has led to a slight decline in feed costs which has had a relatively positive impact on GDP. These effects will likely be reflected in the Q1 2025 outcomes, setting the stage for the 2025 outlook and GDP contribution.