As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu marks his second year in office on May 29, 2025, agriculture—a key pillar of his Renewed Hope Agenda—stands at a crucial turning point. Under the leadership of Minister Abubakar Kyari, the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security has launched sweeping reforms, ambitious policies, and billion-naira interventions to transform Nigeria’s agricultural sector. However, despite these efforts, deep-rooted structural and security challenges continue to pose significant threats.

Shaping a New Agricultural Vision

The establishment of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security was central to Tinubu’s strategy to reduce Nigeria’s reliance on oil, drive economic diversification, and ensure food self-sufficiency. Tasked with boosting productivity, generating rural jobs, and enhancing food access, the ministry quickly became a focal point for strategic investments and programs.

Under Kyari’s leadership, more than ₦309 billion has been allocated to agricultural initiatives, including large-scale mechanization, fertilizer distribution, livestock vaccination, farmer training, and seed innovation. These interventions have reportedly created over 60,000 rural jobs.

A key element of this transformation is the Dry Season Farming Initiative, which expanded to 500,000 hectares, including 118,000 hectares of wheat cultivation across 15 states. This program has reinforced year-round farming and reduced reliance on imports.

Other major milestones include the distribution of 2.15 million bags of fertilizer in partnership with the Central Bank of Nigeria and the administration of 14 million vaccine doses to livestock, alongside the establishment of modern animal clinics nationwide.

Acknowledging climate change as a critical challenge, the ministry has championed climate-smart agriculture, promoting drought-resistant and heat-tolerant seed varieties. Partnerships with research institutions have been strengthened to ensure farmers receive cutting-edge agricultural innovations through an enhanced extension service system.

Infrastructure investments also play a vital role. The ministry has built over 200 kilometers of rural roads, installed solar-powered boreholes, and deployed streetlights to farming communities, improving both productivity and local livelihoods.

Kyari’s tenure has also focused on inclusivity, training over 20,000 farmers, particularly youth and women, in agribusiness, financial management, and modern farming techniques. Additionally, the formation of an Agricultural Sector Working Group has brought public and private sector stakeholders together to shape Nigeria’s agricultural roadmap.

To mitigate risks and modernize the sector, insurance schemes and climate information services have been introduced, offering smallholder farmers better protection and attracting investment.

Persistent Challenges: Insecurity, Inflation, and Infrastructure Gaps

Despite these strides, Nigeria’s agricultural sector continues to face systemic obstacles. One of the most pressing concerns is food inflation, which has surged by more than 40% year-on-year for nearly a decade, driven by insecurity, poor logistics, and structural inefficiencies.

Across many states, farming communities are under siege from banditry, kidnappings, and communal conflicts, forcing thousands of farmers off their lands and disrupting production cycles. Food smuggling and poor road infrastructure further exacerbate supply chain disruptions.

A flawed farmer database, plagued by corruption and manipulation, has also hindered equitable distribution of government support. Subsidized inputs often fail to reach the farmers most in need, creating a gap between policy intentions and actual impact.

One of the sector’s most overlooked crises is post-harvest losses, with an estimated 40% of food produced never reaching consumers due to inadequate preservation, cold storage infrastructure, and inefficient transport systems—costing the economy billions annually.

Climate change remains a formidable challenge, bringing erratic rainfall, droughts, and flash floods that disrupt planting seasons and damage crops. While dry-season farming and seed improvements have been introduced, the scale and timing of these interventions remain insufficient.

Expert Perspectives: Progress, Concerns, and the Need for Action

Agricultural stakeholders remain cautiously optimistic. Peter Dama, Chairman of the Competitive African Rice Forum (Nigeria), acknowledges progress but stresses the need for effective execution. He commended initiatives such as the National Agricultural Fund, mechanization efforts, and fertilizer distribution, yet noted that many policies remain under-implemented.

Dama praised Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones, calling them a potential game-changer—if executed properly. He also recognized government support for rice fortification and seed quality improvements, areas of growing collaboration with development partners.

However, he expressed concern over economic policies such as fuel subsidy removal, food import waivers, and electricity tariff hikes, which have compounded farmers’ difficulties.

“The import waiver is a major issue—it makes Nigeria food insecure. If we depend too much on imports, the naira weakens, farmers lose confidence, and national sovereignty is at risk,” he cautioned.

Dama urged the government to move beyond promises to implement existing policies, saying, “It is time we deliver on commitments already on paper.”

Similarly, Abubakar Kassim, President of the Fertilizer Producers and Suppliers Association of Nigeria, pointed out the timing of fuel subsidy removal as a challenge.

The increase in petrol costs hit farmers hard just as the dry season began.

“The price of fuel immediately affected irrigation. Then transportation costs skyrocketed. The impact was swift and painful,” Kassim noted.

He also highlighted the influx of foreign rice, which undercuts local farmers facing rising costs. “Countries like Thailand and India had surplus harvests and dumped excess supply into Nigeria’s market, lowering prices for our local farmers who now struggle to compete.”

Kassim called for targeted interventions to reduce production costs for Nigerian farmers, including better irrigation infrastructure and access to affordable inputs.
Looking Ahead: Will Tinubu’s Vision Endure?

As Tinubu enters his third year, his agricultural agenda remains bold yet fragile. While Minister Kyari has injected structure and energy into the sector, deep-rooted issues—insecurity, inflation, weak infrastructure, and policy inconsistency—must be tackled decisively.

To realize the Renewed Hope Agenda, Nigeria needs more than billion-naira projects and ambitious headlines. What’s required is consistent execution, strong political will, and grassroots accountability—because Nigeria’s farmers have waited long enough.