Discussing the positive performance of South Africa’s agriculture sector feels somewhat contradictory, given the severe animal health crisis affecting its largest subsector.

The extent to which foot-and-mouth disease is controlled, the industry’s recovery, and the financial impact on cattle farmers will become clearer in the coming months.

For now, there is optimism in the commitment of the Department of Agriculture and organized agricultural groups, who are focused on finding solutions. Hopefully, this crisis will prompt long-term improvements and heightened attention to industry challenges.

One key data point that gained attention last week was the recovery of South Africa’s farming economy in the first quarter and its role in the country’s overall economic performance. According to Statistics South Africa, agricultural gross value added grew by 15.8% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the first quarter of 2025.

Although quarterly agricultural figures can be volatile and subject to revisions, making annual trends a more reliable measure, it is evident that the growth in the first quarter is largely driven by improved performance in the horticulture subsector.

South Africa’s agriculture industry is rebounding from the 2024 drought, but the recovery remains uneven, with the livestock subsector still struggling with animal disease challenges that will likely persist throughout the year.

Encouragingly, improved productivity in field crops, fruit farming, and wine production—among other agricultural value chains—will further support the sector’s expansion in the coming quarters. Harvesting in these areas only commenced in the second quarter. Some notable production highlights include:

• The summer grains and oilseeds sector is performing well, with the Crop Estimates Committee projecting a 17.98 million-tonne harvest—16% higher than the drought-affected 2023-24 season, thanks to favorable rainfall and sufficient planting.
• South African sugar production for the 2024-25 season is expected to rise by 7% year-on-year to 2.09 million tonnes, driven by adequate irrigation water and favorable weather conditions.

• SA Wine and Vinpro report a wine grape harvest of 1.244 million tonnes—an 11% recovery from 2024’s poor yields.
• The South African Table Grape Industry has recorded a total harvest of 78.9 million cartons for 2024-25, marking a 4% year-on-year increase.
• Citrus, fruit, and vegetable production figures are also showing positive trends.
• Poultry production is benefiting from declining maize and soybean prices, aiding its ongoing recovery.

Despite these improvements, concerns remain about the livestock sector, primarily due to foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks. Several trading partners have already imposed temporary bans on South African beef exports in response.

Given the livestock industry’s significant contribution to agricultural gross value added, its ongoing struggles need to be considered when evaluating the sector’s overall recovery. These challenges underscore the anticipated uneven growth trajectory for agriculture in 2025.

Nonetheless, agriculture is expected to record positive growth this year after contracting by 8.7% in 2024 and 4.6% in 2023. Favorable base effects, combined with strong performance in crop farming, horticulture, and poultry, are likely to support the sector’s annual recovery.

Overall, South Africa’s economy saw marginal growth of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the first quarter of 2025, remaining stuck in a low-growth cycle.

Source: Wandile Silhobo