In Lagos, the price of maize has doubled within a single year. In Morocco, pipelines now carry desalinated water across barren plains to farms that once depended on rainfall. These snapshots capture a broader reality: across Africa, climate shocks are reshaping the future of food security. The impact is most severe in rain-dependent and water-stressed regions, from the Sahel and the Horn of Africa to Southern Africa’s drought-stricken corridors. Erratic rainfall, prolonged droughts, and heat waves are no longer isolated events; they are driving up food prices and testing the resilience of millions.

Unlike traditional inflation, which is often linked to monetary policy or global commodity markets, climate-driven inflation—sometimes called climateflation—stems from supply shocks that no central banker can control. Failed rains lead to collapsed harvests, floods destroy transport routes, and hotter conditions fuel pests that force farmers to spend more on pesticides. These costs inevitably reach consumers, tightening household budgets already stretched thin.

Research across 16 West African countries shows that temperature anomalies directly increase food inflation, with Sahelian nations most vulnerable due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, families spend more than half of their income on food. In Ethiopia’s north-eastern highlands, households devote as much as 65 to 75 percent of their budgets to food, leaving them exposed to even modest price increases. The United Nations has warned that millions risk slipping deeper into poverty as climate shocks intensify.

Water scarcity, however, may prove the greater long-term challenge. Agriculture consumes around 80 percent of Africa’s freshwater, yet aquifers are being depleted faster than they can recharge, rivers are drying before reaching the sea, and rainfall patterns are increasingly unpredictable. Somalia has endured five consecutive failed rainy seasons, leaving millions food insecure. Southern Africa’s dwindling river flows have crippled irrigation systems, while Morocco’s rapid expansion of desalination plants reflects a desperate attempt to stave off desertification. By 2025, three billion people worldwide will live in water-stressed regions, with Africa at the epicentre. Without systemic reforms, water scarcity will define the continent’s agricultural future.

Food crises in Africa reverberate globally. Extreme weather-driven harvest failures contribute to international price surges and market volatility. Rising food costs heighten the risk of social unrest, fuel migration pressures, and strain aid budgets. Governments across Africa are attempting to respond: Morocco is investing in desalination, Kenya is trialling drought-tolerant maize, and Nigeria is subsidising fertiliser and fuel. Yet these measures remain fragmented, more patchwork than comprehensive. What is urgently needed is a coordinated strategy—investment in climate-resilient farming, reforms in water governance, adaptive economic policies, and stronger regional cooperation.

The challenge cannot be dismissed as mere mismanagement or corruption. While governance failures worsen crises, even well-run systems cannot withstand relentless climate shocks without new forms of resilience. This is not about Africa’s inability to feed itself; it is about how climate change is rewriting the rules of agriculture everywhere.

Technology offers promise, but only if access is equitable. Desalination plants cannot help farmers who cannot afford water, and genetically engineered crops are useless if smallholders lack credit to buy seeds. Africa’s path forward lies not in a single solution but in a toolbox of innovations, policies, and partnerships.

The stakes are global. If Africa fails to secure its food future, the ripple effects will reshape economies and societies far beyond the continent. Rising hunger undermines political stability, surging food prices deepen inequality, and each failed harvest underscores that climate change is not a distant threat but a present crisis, measured daily in loaves of bread and bowls of rice.

Africa’s food future is precarious but not doomed. With bold investment, smarter governance, and international solidarity, the continent can transform climateflation into an opportunity for resilience. Without such action, hunger risks becoming the normalized cost of a warming planet.