Nigeria’s agriculture sector has suffered an estimated ₦5 trillion ($4 billion) loss in productive capital over the past two years, according to the Foundation for Peace Professionals (PeacePro).

The group attributed the massive agricultural capital destruction to policy-induced price crashes, unreliable weather forecasts from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency, and severe market distortions that forced millions of farmers to sell produce below cost.

Policy Shocks Trigger Massive Farmer Capital Losses

In a statement issued in Ilorin and signed by Executive Director Abdulrazaq Hamzat, PeacePro described the losses as direct “liquidation of farmer capital” at the producer level.

The estimate, according to the organization, excludes secondary economic consequences such as:

• Consumer food inflation
• GDP contraction
• Foreign exchange pressures
• Security-related costs

“Those impacts come later. What has already happened is the liquidation of farmer capital,” the statement noted.

PeacePro argued that Nigeria’s attempt to “control food prices” during the 2024–2025 period failed. Instead, poorly timed interventions, price suppression mechanisms, weak market coordination and misleading weather forecasts from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) contributed to repeated farm-level losses.

“This was not a market correction. It was a policy shock that transferred value away from producers,” the group stated.

6–8 Million Commercial Farmers Most Affected

While an estimated 38–40 million Nigerians are engaged in agriculture, PeacePro said the heaviest damage was concentrated among market-facing producers, rather than subsistence farmers.

The most affected group includes approximately 6–8 million small and medium-scale commercial farmers, particularly:

• Grain producers
• Tuber farmers
• Vegetable growers
• Legume producers

These farmers supply Nigeria’s urban and regional food markets and typically lack storage capacity, making them vulnerable to sudden price collapses.

Although subsistence farmers were also negatively affected — particularly due to inaccurate weather forecasts — the bulk of the ₦5 trillion loss was borne by commercial producers.

Two Consecutive Production Cycles Wiped Out Capital

According to Hamzat, repeated price crashes across two production cycles led to aggregate losses approaching ₦5 trillion, even under conservative estimates.

PeacePro compared the scale of destruction to a financial sector collapse, noting a critical distinction:

“This crisis did not happen in banks or stock markets. It happened quietly, in farms and rural communities.”

The group warned that depleted farmer capital will likely result in:

• Reduced planting in 2026
• Lower domestic food supply
• Higher food prices
• Rising rural poverty
• Increased social instability
• Food Security Risks Mount for Nigeria

PeacePro urged Nigerian authorities to publicly acknowledge the scale of agricultural losses and shift policy away from short-term price suppression toward:

• Producer protection
• Capital preservation
• Market stability mechanisms

“No country can bankrupt its farmers and remain food secure,” Hamzat warned, adding that Nigeria risks long-term food insecurity if corrective action is not taken.

With agriculture employing tens of millions and serving as a backbone of Nigeria’s rural economy, the ₦5 trillion capital wipeout signals deeper structural challenges in agricultural policy, food price management, and climate risk coordination.