South Africa’s citrus industry is facing a delicate balancing act as export volumes rise while a stronger rand puts pressure on grower margins. The country is forecast to export around 206 million 15 kg cartons of citrus this year, up from 203.7 million cartons last season, reflecting the sector’s expanding production. However, growers are increasingly concerned about profitability as the rand has strengthened by approximately 25 percent against the U.S. dollar over the past year, eroding the currency advantage that previously bolstered export returns.

“Margins have been under pressure for many years, but farmers who exported could make up some of the shortfall through a weaker currency,” an anonymous producer told Farmer’s Weekly. “But with the rand strengthening, the margins are gone.” To protect returns, growers are being advised to focus on optimal sizing and pack-outs, diverting marginal fruit to alternative channels. Yet even juice values are under pressure, creating the risk that some farmers may attempt to export lower-quality fruit, potentially undermining the wider industry.

Despite these challenges, higher production volumes provide some cost efficiency benefits. Juan Winter, managing director of Source BI, noted that “nothing brings return on investment like volumes in the citrus industry. The higher the volumes, the lower the production cost per unit.” Gross income per hectare has declined slightly, from a peak of US$7,207 in 2020 to about US$6,667 last year, which still represents a profitable level of production.

Trade agreements continue to influence market opportunities. In January, the U.S. confirmed that South Africa will remain a beneficiary of AGOA for at least 2026, though mandarins are subject to a 30 percent tariff. In February, South Africa signed a Framework Agreement on Economic Partnership with China, reducing tariffs on South African goods to zero percent. Dr. Boitshoko Ntshabele, CEO of the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA), said the agreement improves competitiveness in China and could help expand access in one of the world’s largest citrus markets. An Early Harvest Agreement is expected ahead of the main season, although price potential in China has remained relatively flat in recent years.

The CGA continues to prioritise logistics and market access. Port reforms and the joint venture between Transnet and International Container Terminal Services at Durban Container Terminal Pier 2 are cited as supportive developments. While the European Union remains South Africa’s largest citrus market, competition from Egypt has increased. Growers are also exploring markets in Indonesia and Vietnam, though oversupply issues in Bangladesh and India highlight the importance of volume discipline and quality management when entering new markets.

As South Africa’s citrus production expands, growers face a challenging mix of currency fluctuations, global competition, and market diversification pressures. Maintaining profitability will require careful attention to export quality, logistics efficiency, and strategic use of emerging trade agreements.