The agriculture sector in South Africa posted a strong recovery in 2025, recording 17.4% year-on-year GDP growth after two consecutive years of contraction. The rebound was largely driven by bumper harvests, record agricultural exports, and favourable production conditions, helping the sector overcome trade disruptions and livestock disease outbreaks.

According to industry analysis by Paul Makube, the sector’s performance highlights agriculture’s critical role in supporting economic growth and food security.

Quarterly Growth Shows Signs of Slowing

While the annual figures reflect a strong recovery, quarterly performance was more moderate.

Agricultural GDP growth slowed to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from 1.4% in the third quarter, based on seasonally adjusted data. Analysts say the slowdown reflects ongoing structural challenges affecting parts of the sector.

Livestock Sector Hit by Animal Disease Outbreaks

The livestock industry remained the largest constraint on agricultural growth during the year due to disease outbreaks.

Cases of Foot-and-mouth disease affected cloven-hoofed animals such as cattle, pigs and sheep, leading to movement restrictions and temporary bans on meat exports in some markets.

The sector was further impacted by outbreaks of African swine fever, which caused additional losses for pig producers.

Animal products represent the largest share of agricultural output, accounting for 41% of total gross producer value (GPV), estimated at R206.87 billion in 2025.

Cattle, pigs and sheep together contributed 48% of total animal product GPV, underlining the importance of the livestock sector to South Africa’s agricultural economy.

To stabilise the industry, authorities have declared a national disaster and introduced a national vaccination policy, measures expected to support recovery over the medium term.

Record Agricultural Exports Boost Sector Performance

Despite disease outbreaks and global trade uncertainties, South Africa achieved record agricultural export earnings in 2025.

Exports increased 10% year-on-year to reach $15.1 billion, according to international trade data. The fourth quarter alone generated $3.4 billion in exports, representing a 7% increase compared with the same period in 2024.

The strong performance was supported by higher export volumes and favourable commodity prices across several agricultural products.

Strong Crop Outlook for 2025/26 Season

Production prospects for the 2025/26 agricultural season appear positive, with farmers increasing the area planted under summer crops.

Favourable weather conditions and improved planting activity could result in another bumper harvest, which would further support agricultural GDP growth in the coming years.

In addition, the sector is anticipating a strong citrus export season, one of South Africa’s most important agricultural industries.

Global Risks Could Push Up Farming Costs

Despite the positive outlook, global developments could pose new risks for the sector.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has introduced uncertainty in global commodity markets and trade routes. As a result, South Africa may face higher input costs, particularly for fertilisers and fuel.

The country remains a net importer of key agricultural inputs, including fertiliser and crude oil used for farming operations.

Higher freight costs and potential disruptions to export markets in the Middle East could also weigh on agricultural trade if geopolitical tensions persist.

Outlook Remains Positive for South African Agriculture

Despite these challenges, the outlook for South Africa’s agriculture sector remains broadly optimistic.

With strong crop production, improving livestock health conditions, and continued export demand, the sector is expected to remain an important contributor to economic growth.

Analysts say a reduction in foot-and-mouth disease cases and a strong citrus harvest could further strengthen the sector’s performance in the year ahead.