South Africa’s agriculture sector is facing growing pressure from recent floods across the Western Cape and other parts of the country, adding new risks to an industry already managing climate volatility, infrastructure challenges, and animal disease outbreaks.

While several agricultural subsectors are still expected to deliver strong harvests during the 2025/26 season, industry leaders warn that flood damage and prolonged rainfall are beginning to disrupt production, logistics, and planting activities in key farming regions.

Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa chief economist Wandile Sihlobo said South Africa’s agricultural sector is still likely to record overall growth in 2026, although weather-related disruptions are expected to weigh unevenly across industries.

According to Sihlobo, field crops, vegetables, sugarcane, and fruit production remain on track for potentially strong harvests, supported largely by favourable La Niña weather conditions and expanded planting activity during the current production cycle.

Data from South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee projects the country’s 2025/26 summer grain and oilseed harvest at approximately 20.8 million tonnes, representing a 1% increase compared to the previous season.

Maize production is expected to remain relatively resilient despite the excessive rainfall, partly because many farming regions planted later than normal following delayed seasonal rains. In many eastern maize-producing areas, planting only gained momentum after mid-October, while western production regions experienced delayed planting into November.

As a result, large portions of the maize crop are still in the maturation phase, with harvesting expected to begin mainly from June onwards.

However, the continued heavy rainfall is creating growing concerns over crop quality in some grain and oilseed regions. Sihlobo noted that soybean and sunflower-producing areas may experience isolated quality losses due to excessive moisture and delayed drying conditions.

The fruit sector is among the industries experiencing the greatest pressure from the floods, particularly citrus-producing regions in the Eastern and Western Cape.

Heavy rains have delayed harvesting activities in several citrus-growing areas, while some farms have reported infrastructure damage, flooded orchards, and crop losses. In Patensie in the Eastern Cape, farmers estimate that between 15% and 20% of expected citrus harvest volumes may have been lost following floods during critical harvesting periods.

The table grape sector has also experienced damage, especially in parts of the Hex River Valley where orchards, vineyards, and farm infrastructure have been affected by flooding.

Beyond crop losses, damaged roads and bridges are creating logistical bottlenecks for producers attempting to move fresh produce to local and export markets. Transport disruptions remain a major concern for South Africa’s export-oriented agricultural industries, particularly citrus, grapes, and other perishable products that rely on efficient cold-chain logistics.

Winter crop planting activities are also being affected in parts of the Western Cape. Excessively wet conditions are slowing the planting of wheat, barley, and canola in some regions, with farmers waiting for soils to dry sufficiently before machinery can enter fields.

The ostrich industry in the Southern Cape has also been impacted by localised flooding, although the full extent of damage to farms and infrastructure remains under assessment.

Despite these setbacks, the overall agricultural outlook for South Africa remains relatively positive compared to previous drought-affected seasons. Industry analysts believe the country still has the potential to deliver one of its stronger grain and horticultural production seasons, provided weather conditions stabilise during the coming months.

Sihlobo emphasised that infrastructure recovery will be critical to supporting agricultural recovery in flood-affected areas. He said collaboration between local government authorities and farming communities would be essential to restore damaged roads, bridges, and rural infrastructure needed to support agricultural production and exports.

The latest floods once again highlight the growing vulnerability of African agriculture to climate-related disruptions. Across Southern Africa, producers are increasingly facing alternating periods of drought, excessive rainfall, and severe storms, placing additional pressure on food production systems, export supply chains, and rural economies.

For South Africa’s agriculture sector, the challenge now lies in balancing the opportunities presented by strong harvest prospects with the rising costs and disruptions associated with climate-linked disasters.