Farmland values across Nigeria’s major agricultural regions have risen sharply in recent years, driven by rapid urban expansion, industrial development, insecurity and growing investor interest in land as an asset class. The trend is raising concerns that smallholder farmers and young entrants could increasingly be priced out of agriculture.

In parts of southwestern Nigeria, farmland that sold for about N200,000 per plot in 2020 was reportedly valued at up to N5 million by 2022. Today, agricultural land in areas such as Ibeju-Lekki in Lagos State is selling for between N30 million and N100 million per acre, reflecting strong demand from developers, investors and agribusiness operators.

The rising cost of land is transforming farmland from a productive agricultural resource into one of the country’s fastest-appreciating investment assets, increasing pressure on farmers seeking affordable land for cultivation.

According to the All Farmers Association of Nigeria, the situation has become increasingly challenging for producers. AFAN Executive Secretary, Otunba Femi Oke, said urban expansion and insecurity have significantly reduced access to viable farmland, particularly in southwestern Nigeria.

He noted that many farmers are struggling to acquire land large enough to operate profitably, while affordable land is increasingly located in remote rural areas where infrastructure and security remain concerns.

The sharp rise in land prices is evident across several regions. In Abuja, farmland in some areas is reportedly selling for more than N10 million per hectare, while a 10-hectare parcel in Kuje has been listed for N220 million. In Epe, Lagos, land that sold for around N700,000 per acre a few years ago now commands between N12 million and N45 million.

Around the Lekki Deep Sea Port corridor, agricultural land values have increased particularly rapidly as industrial projects, logistics developments and residential expansion continue to reshape the area.

Neighbouring Ogun State, traditionally regarded as an agricultural buffer zone for Lagos, has also experienced substantial increases in farmland prices. In some areas, land values have risen by more than 400 percent over recent years as urban growth extends beyond Lagos.

Industry observers say competition for land has intensified as food processing companies pursuing backward integration strategies acquire large tracts for commercial production, while real estate developers continue converting agricultural land into housing estates, warehouses and industrial facilities.

According to Akin Alabi, co-founder of Corporate Farmers, urbanisation is steadily reducing the country’s agricultural land base.

Research cited in the Northcourt Nigeria Real Estate Market Review H1 2025 indicates that Lagos State lost approximately 22 percent of its agricultural land between 2013 and 2024 as development expanded into previously productive farming areas. Similar studies by Nigerian universities have documented significant reductions in farmland across the state over the past four decades.

The land access challenge comes at a time when production costs are also increasing. Data from the National Agricultural Extension and Research Liaison Service shows that cultivation costs for major crops rose significantly during the 2025 production season.

Maize production costs increased by 29.2 percent, soybean cultivation costs rose by 36.8 percent and yam production costs climbed by 25.9 percent compared with the previous year. Fertiliser prices also increased, with NPK fertiliser averaging about N52,000 per 50-kilogram bag.

Despite these challenges, Nigeria’s agricultural output continued to grow. NAERLS reported that food production increased from 9.1 million metric tonnes in 2024 to 9.4 million metric tonnes in 2025, while cultivated land expanded by 1.4 percent.

The Federation of Agricultural Commodities Association of Nigeria has warned that escalating land prices could discourage younger Nigerians from entering agriculture. FACAN Board of Trustees Chairman Dr. Victor Iyama called for reforms aimed at improving access to land, expanding irrigation infrastructure and strengthening rural development.

The Nigerian experience reflects a broader global trend. Farmland has increasingly attracted investor interest as a hedge against inflation, food insecurity and economic uncertainty. According to the Savills Global Farmland Index, average global farmland values rose by 18 percent in 2024, marking the strongest annual increase since 2021.

Agricultural economists warn that while rising land values may benefit existing landowners, sustained increases could ultimately undermine food production if farmers become unable to access sufficient land for commercial cultivation. Policymakers are therefore facing growing pressure to balance urban development, industrial expansion and agricultural sustainability to safeguard future food security.