Africa and Asia could become increasingly important destinations for future agricultural trade, according to a new study by the Farm Journal Foundation examining the outlook for US agricultural exports through 2034.

The study argues that the United States will need to diversify its agricultural export markets as growth opportunities in several of its traditional destinations become more limited.

For decades, US agricultural exports have been concentrated among major markets including Canada, Mexico, China, South Korea and Japan. While these destinations are expected to remain important, the report identifies emerging markets in Africa and Asia as offering greater potential for future expansion.

Africa accounts for 38% of the potential growth in US agricultural exports through 2034 identified in the study. India represents a further 30%, while other South Asian markets account for another 10%.

The findings highlight the growing importance of Africa’s expanding population, food demand and developing consumer markets to global agricultural trade.

However, the study notes that many African and Asian countries still face challenges that limit their ability to function as fully developed commercial markets. These include regulatory constraints, infrastructure gaps, market-development challenges and limited capacity within agricultural and food systems.

The report argues that international cooperation and market-development programmes could help address some of these barriers. It identifies agricultural development assistance, trade and market-promotion programmes, regulatory standards, agricultural research and cooperation between public and private sectors as potential tools for strengthening market readiness.

For exporters, improved market readiness could create more reliable trading environments and make it easier for agricultural products to move between producers and consumers.

The study was authored by Shawn Arita, a former US Department of Agriculture economist and associate research professor and associate director at North Dakota State University’s Agricultural Risk Policy Center. The report notes that its findings do not necessarily represent the views of the university.

The projected shift in agricultural trade growth also points to the increasing importance of African markets in global food supply chains. As populations, incomes and food consumption patterns change, demand for agricultural commodities and processed food products is expected to create new commercial opportunities.

For African countries, greater participation in international agricultural trade could also bring opportunities to attract investment, improve infrastructure, strengthen processing capacity and develop more competitive domestic value chains.

The findings suggest that future agricultural trade will increasingly depend not only on established markets, but also on countries and regions developing the infrastructure, policies and commercial networks needed to support sustained cross-border trade.

The study therefore places Africa at the centre of the next phase of global agricultural market expansion, while highlighting the investment and policy work required to convert growing demand into stable trade opportunities.