By Brandon Moss 

Despite being the European Union’s largest trading partner in Africa, South Africa’s agri-food exports to the EU are losing momentum. A new study published in the journal Agrekon by researchers from Stellenbosch University and Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic, warns that existing trade agreements are no longer sufficient to sustain long-term competitiveness.

Using trade data from 1999 to 2019 and the Constant Market Share (CMS) model, the study reveals that while South Africa’s agri-food exports—led by citrus, grapes, wine, apples and pears, and avocados—have grown over the past two decades, the pace of growth has slowed significantly since the 2008 global financial crisis. The researchers attribute this to lingering recession effects and the rise of non-tariff measures (NTMs), including stricter food safety standards, labeling requirements, and environmental regulations.

The study highlights shifting demand patterns across the EU. Eastern Europe, once a fast-growing market following EU accession and trade liberalization, saw its annual agri-food import growth rate drop from 6.5% to 3.5% post-recession. Southern Europe experienced an even sharper decline, from 6.3% to 2.6%, while Central and Northern Europe have largely plateaued.

The researchers argue that South Africa’s current trade arrangements are increasingly ineffective in supporting the agri-food sector’s development. Local producers are now competing in saturated or slow-growing markets, while facing high compliance costs and logistical challenges. “Although South Africa remains a key supplier, the trade environment is becoming more complex and less favorable,” the authors note.

To reverse the trend, the study recommends a multi-pronged strategy:

• Product Prioritization: Focus on agri-food products with strong global demand, particularly horticultural goods.
• Market Targeting: Redirect exports toward fast-growing EU regions, especially emerging Eastern European countries.
• Infrastructure Investment: Upgrade domestic ports, cold chain systems, and electricity supply to reduce transaction costs and improve competitiveness.
• Regulatory Engagement: Initiate diplomatic dialogue with EU counterparts to revisit NTMs and resolve disputes that limit market access.
• Diversification: Explore new trade opportunities in BRICS nations, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and other high-growth regions.

The study, titled Trade or Trap? The Impact of EU Trade Policies on South Africa’s Agri-Food Exports, underscores the broader development benefits of strong agri-food exports, including job creation, technology adoption, and improved market access. But without strategic intervention, South Africa risks losing ground in one of its most valuable export markets.

For policymakers and exporters alike, the message is clear: the EU remains a critical partner, but navigating its evolving trade landscape will require agility, investment, and a renewed commitment to competitiveness.