Nigeria’s coffee industry stands at a crossroads.

While global demand for coffee continues to rise and African producers such as Ethiopia and Uganda enjoy record export earnings, Nigeria’s coffee sector remains largely dormant, constrained by decades of underinvestment, weak policy support, aging plantations, and limited market access.

Industry stakeholders now believe the country has an opportunity to reverse that decline and position coffee as a strategic driver of export growth, rural development, and economic diversification.

The challenge is substantial. According to projections by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Nigeria’s annual coffee production is expected to decline from 40,800 bags to 39,900 bags by 2028 if current trends persist.

In contrast, Ethiopia produced an estimated 11.1 million bags of coffee in 2025, generating more than $1.4 billion in export earnings, while Uganda produced approximately 6.9 million bags and earned over $2 billion from coffee exports.

Despite possessing suitable agroecological conditions for coffee cultivation, Nigeria remains absent from the list of Africa’s leading coffee producers.

Reviving a Forgotten Industry

The Cocoa and Coffee Farmers Alliance Association of Africa (COCEFAAA) believes the decline is not due to a lack of potential but rather the result of longstanding structural challenges.

Among the key constraints identified are the absence of a national coffee development framework, weak market access, poor pricing systems, aging plantations, inadequate research and development, and fragmented production structures.

To address these challenges, stakeholders recently inaugurated the Steering Committee of the Nigeria Coffee Revival Initiative (NCRI), a programme being implemented in collaboration with the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, the Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria (CRIN), and 14 coffee-producing states.

According to COCEFAAA Global President and National Project Coordinator of the NCRI, Comrade Adeola Adegoke, the initiative is not introducing a new crop to Nigeria but seeking to restore an industry that once held considerable promise.

“Coffee, like cocoa, is a continental crop,” Adegoke said. “Africa accounts for roughly 12.5 per cent of global coffee production, down from 27.2 per cent in the 1970s. That decline reflects decades of insufficient policy support, investment, and institutional representation for African coffee farmers.”

The Smallholder Challenge

At the heart of Nigeria’s coffee industry are approximately 10,000 smallholder farmers spread across 14 states, including Ondo, Oyo, Ogun, Kogi, Cross River, Osun, Ekiti, Edo, Imo, Delta, Abia, Kwara, Plateau, and Taraba.

These farmers account for the overwhelming majority of Nigeria’s coffee production and exports.

Yet many face significant obstacles that threaten the industry’s future.

According to COCEFAAA, more than 90 per cent of coffee farmers cite poor pricing structures and limited access to market information as key reasons for reducing production or abandoning coffee cultivation altogether.

Many plantations consist of aging tree stocks with declining productivity, while inadequate access to extension services, improved seedlings, and technical support continues to constrain yields.

The sector is also facing a demographic challenge, with many coffee farmers nearing retirement age and few structured programmes in place to attract younger generations into production.

Building a Modern Coffee Economy

The Nigeria Coffee Revival Initiative seeks to tackle these challenges through a coordinated approach that combines farmer support, policy reform, market development, and investment promotion.

Planned interventions include agronomic training, distribution of certified improved seedlings through CRIN-accredited channels, cooperative development, and the establishment of fair pricing frameworks designed to improve farmer incomes.

Stakeholders are also working toward the development of a comprehensive Nigeria Coffee Sector Development Policy aimed at encouraging domestic production, supporting import substitution, and creating an enabling environment for private-sector investment.

The initiative brings together a broad coalition of institutions, including the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment, CRIN, the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC), the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), and the National Coffee and Tea Association of Nigeria.

Coffee and Economic Diversification

For policymakers, coffee represents more than an agricultural commodity.

Agriculture and Food Security Minister, Abubakar Kyari, described the revitalisation of the coffee sector as a strategic necessity for economic diversification, export growth, and climate resilience.

As Nigeria seeks to reduce its dependence on oil revenues, coffee is increasingly being viewed as a potential source of foreign exchange earnings and rural employment.

“The revitalisation of Nigeria’s coffee industry is not just a nostalgic pursuit of old agricultural glories,” Kyari said. “It is a strategic, non-negotiable imperative for sustainable economic growth, export development, and climate resilience.”

He noted that global demand for specialty and organic coffee continues to expand, creating new opportunities for producers capable of meeting international quality standards.

Moving Beyond Raw Exports

Industry leaders argue that the greatest economic opportunity lies not only in producing coffee but also in processing it domestically.

For decades, many coffee-producing countries have exported raw green beans while much of the value creation has occurred elsewhere through roasting, packaging, branding, and retail distribution.

Nigeria’s coffee revival strategy seeks to change that dynamic.

Stakeholders are calling for investments in local roasting facilities, processing plants, and coffee brands capable of competing in domestic and international markets.

By developing a complete value chain—from cultivation and processing to packaging and export—Nigeria could capture a greater share of the industry’s economic value while creating jobs across multiple sectors.

“Let the world drink coffee that is not only grown in Nigeria but roasted, packaged and branded in Nigeria,” Kyari said.

Expanding Export Opportunities

The Nigerian Export Promotion Council has expressed strong support for the initiative, viewing coffee as a potentially important contributor to the country’s non-oil export strategy.

According to NEPC Chief Executive Officer, Nonye Ayeni, the project aligns closely with national objectives around export diversification, job creation, and sustainable agricultural development.

The council believes that improved governance, farm rehabilitation, farmer training, value addition, and stronger market access could help position Nigerian coffee more competitively in global markets.

As international demand continues to grow, particularly in premium and specialty coffee segments, stakeholders believe Nigeria has an opportunity to reclaim its place within Africa’s coffee economy.

A Crop with Untapped Potential

Nigeria’s coffee sector faces significant challenges, but it also possesses considerable untapped potential.

With coordinated policy support, investment in modern production systems, stronger farmer organisations, and expanded value addition, coffee could emerge as a new pillar of the country’s agricultural transformation agenda.

The success of the Nigeria Coffee Revival Initiative will ultimately depend on whether stakeholders can translate ambition into sustained action.

If they succeed, coffee could become more than a niche crop. It could become a source of export revenue, rural prosperity, and economic resilience in Africa’s largest economy.

For a country searching for new engines of growth beyond oil, that opportunity may be too significant to ignore.