Kenyan farmers are increasingly shifting from wheat to barley as strong demand from breweries in Uganda and Tanzania pushes up prices and creates more attractive commercial opportunities.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service, rising barley demand, lower production costs and more favourable contracting arrangements are encouraging farmers to switch crops.

The transition is relatively straightforward because wheat and barley have similar soil and climate requirements, particularly across Kenya’s Narok-Nakuru-Meru agricultural belt.

The shift could, however, place additional pressure on Kenya’s domestic wheat supply at a time when the country already relies heavily on imports to meet consumption requirements.

Regional Demand Drives Barley Prices

Contracted barley farmers who meet required quality standards can receive guaranteed prices of up to $0.46, or about KSh60, per kilogramme. That compares with approximately $0.43, or KSh55.47, for top-grade locally produced wheat in 2026.

Regional export markets have offered even stronger returns. Barley prices reached a high of about $0.62, equivalent to KSh80 per kilogramme, in 2025, attracting farmers seeking better returns from their land.

Lower-grade barley sold to the domestic livestock feed industry fetches between KSh35 and KSh40 per kilogramme.

The stronger regional market has resulted in a significant share of Kenya’s barley production being exported, leaving only about a quarter available for domestic malting and downstream brewing activities, according to the USDA.

Uganda is by far the largest destination. Kenya exported an estimated 39,997 tonnes of barley in 2025, with Uganda absorbing 38,342 tonnes, or 93% of total exports.

Tanzania accounted for another 1,150 tonnes, representing 2.9% of exports, while small consignments were shipped to Burundi and the United Kingdom.

The trade is being driven largely by demand from regional breweries, including companies linked to Kenyan brewing operations.

Barley Production Reaches Record Level

Kenya’s barley industry has recovered strongly since a weather-related downturn in 2023, when yields fell to 2.47 tonnes per hectare.

Production increased by 64.6% in 2024 and a further 19.8% in 2025, reaching a record 64,800 tonnes.

Favourable weather, particularly in Mau Narok, contributed to the increase, while cultivated land expanded by 7.7% from 13,929 hectares to 15,000 hectares.

Narok remains Kenya’s leading barley-producing county, accounting for about 60% of national production, with large commercial operations concentrated around Mau Narok.

Meru contributes approximately 15% to 20%, while Nakuru accounts for around 10% to 15%. Uasin Gishu contributes an estimated 5% to 10%, with Laikipia accounting for roughly 2% to 5%.

The USDA expects production to continue increasing if more wheat farmers convert land to barley.

Wheat Supply Faces New Pressure

For farmers, barley offers the attraction of stronger prices and relatively predictable contract arrangements. For Kenya’s food system, however, the continued shift could create additional pressure on domestic wheat availability.

Kenya already produces only a fraction of the wheat required by its domestic market. Recent government data also points to a decline in wheat production linked partly to farmers moving into barley following stronger barley prices.

The situation highlights the competing demands facing Kenyan farmers: selecting crops that provide stronger commercial returns while maintaining sufficient domestic production of strategically important food commodities.

Barley growers also face challenges including recurring droughts, volatile input costs and short-term land leases that can discourage investment in soil health and long-term productivity.

The growing regional market nevertheless demonstrates how East African trade can influence production decisions at farm level. As breweries and other buyers in neighbouring countries increase demand, Kenyan farmers are responding by allocating more land to a crop that offers access to established regional markets and potentially higher returns.