Dairy markets across North Africa and the wider region are facing growing pressure as higher shipping, fuel and production costs push prices higher and squeeze both producers and consumers.

In Egypt, cheese and other dairy prices have risen by as much as 20% in recent weeks, with industry representatives pointing to soaring shipping costs and more expensive production inputs.

Mohamed El-Damaty, vice president of the Food Industries Chamber at the Federation of Egyptian Industries, attributed part of the increase to higher shipping costs linked to regional tensions.

He warned that prolonged disruptions could place further pressure on food manufacturers, many of which are already struggling to absorb higher input costs without passing them on to consumers.

The pressure extends beyond transport. Strong global demand for protein and related products is also contributing to higher prices for some raw materials used by dairy processors.

Powdered milk prices in Egypt have climbed sharply, rising from around $2,400–$2,600 per tonne at the beginning of the year to more than $3,600 per tonne.

Other important inputs, including vegetable oils, sugar and concentrates, have also become more expensive.

The uncertainty is beginning to influence trading behaviour. Some wholesalers are reportedly increasing cheese inventories as they anticipate further price volatility, adding another layer of pressure to an already stretched market.

Diesel Shortages Hit Syrian Dairy Producers

Syria is facing similar pressures, although fuel availability has become an especially important concern for the dairy sector.

Dairy prices in the country have increased by around 10% over the past two months, according to Ahmad al-Sawwas, secretary of the Damascus Dairy and Cheese Producers Association.

Around 85% of Syrian dairy businesses depend on diesel fuel, making the sector particularly vulnerable to shortages and rising fuel prices.

Supplies have been affected by the shutdown of the Baniyas Refinery for a major overhaul, forcing Syria to rely more heavily on expensive imported fuel at a time when international diesel markets are already under pressure.

Higher fuel costs affect almost every stage of the dairy supply chain, from transporting milk from farms to processing, refrigeration and distribution.

Shipping disruptions have added another layer of pressure, while weaker consumer purchasing power is making it increasingly difficult for households to absorb higher dairy prices.

Despite the challenges, Syria’s dairy industry has continued to expand its exports this year, demonstrating the resilience of producers operating under difficult market conditions.

The developments in Egypt and Syria highlight a broader vulnerability across dairy markets: producers can be affected by disruptions far beyond the farm gate.

When fuel becomes more expensive, shipping routes are disrupted or imported ingredients rise sharply in price, those costs can quickly move through processing and distribution networks.

For consumers, the result is higher prices. For producers and processors, it can mean tighter margins and difficult decisions over whether to absorb costs or pass them on.

With regional tensions, fuel markets and international commodity prices remaining uncertain, dairy businesses across North Africa and the Middle East are likely to remain exposed to further volatility.

Strengthening local production, improving supply-chain efficiency and reducing dependence on vulnerable imported inputs could become increasingly important for protecting the region’s dairy industries from future shocks.