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For the past 20 years, FEWS NET scientists have embarked on annual crop tours to visit farmers in areas highly dependent on agriculture to assess crop performance and determine whether seasonal forecasts were accurate. This year, crop tour participants who visited countries across southern Africa were faced with a harsh reality amid a record-breaking drought driven by an unrelenting El Niño. Parts of the region experienced their driest February in decades, leading to water scarcity, reduced harvest potential and crop failure, impacting on the food security and livelihoods of millions of people.

“There was not a single raindrop in February, and crops reached a permanent wilting point. Even resilient crops such as sorghum and sunflowers wilted. Pests, fall armyworm, in particular, were also a menace,” Zimbabwe-based farmer Solomon Makiwa said. “All my efforts are in vain, and we will harvest absolutely nothing.”

Makiwa noted that while local meteorological advisories warned of moderate to below-average rainfall this crop season, causing communities to brace for El Niño conditions similar to years prior, the extent of this year’s devastation was unprecedented.

“One farmer said that this is the worst drought in 60 years, and other farmers were saying this is an extremely bad year, and they don’t recall many years as bad as this one,” NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and FEWS NET Agroclimatology Advisor Dr. Karyn Tabor said. “They said that it’s so difficult to time planting in an El Niño year because while they know that it could be drier, El Niño also brings uncertainty to the timing of the rains.”

Reduced moisture and prolonged dry spells have made many crops unsalvageable. Makiwa explained that all crops in his community, including cereals and legumes, to even small grains like sorghum and millet that require less water to grow, have succumbed to the unsparing heat, forcing people to sell their livestock for necessities. With water sources drying up, people are resorting to unsafe water consumption, leading to health complications.

“We have come to know that climate change is now the elephant in the room, and recurrence of such catastrophes is imminent, hence the need to adopt and adapt climate-smart methods to mitigate the effects of such unfortunate predicaments,” Makiwa said.

In late February this year, Zambia declared a national state of disaster due to the catastrophic impacts of the drought, with the governments of Zimbabwe and Malawi following close behind. These countries largely depend on agriculture for food consumption and income-earning opportunities, raising concerns for future food security.

El Niño warnings

FEWS NET scientists saw their first warning signs of the current El Niño as far back as March 2023, and in a November Alert, warned that a strong El Niño could push more than 20 million people in southern Africa into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse food security outcomes in early 2024. Zimbabwe, Malawi, Mozambique, and Madagascar were expected to be hit the hardest.

FEWS NET’s more recent analyses have continued to include projections of significantly below-average harvests across Southern Africa, with forecasts detailing negative impacts on food access, harvesting labour opportunities, and crop sales through the post-harvest period.

With FEWS NET scientists scattered across the globe, forecasts are made by assessing remotely sensed satellite data models and collaborating with local meteorological departments and on-site scientists who share their data with the global food security community and local governments.

Witnessing extreme weather events

Team members who attended this year’s crop tour emphasized the value of travelling to the regions they monitor to witness the impacts of extreme weather events like droughts first-hand.

“You get a much better understanding of the holistic nature of drought impacts. There is interplay between the challenges of harsh weather and social factors that impact farmer decisions and access to resources, like irrigation,” University of California Santa Barbara (UCSB) Climate Hazards Center (CHC) Specialist and Operations Analyst Dr Laura Harrison said. “A major drought will have expansive but unequal impacts, and it helps to see and hear these stories first hand.”

The US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service has helped facilitate the crop tours since 2004 with FEWS NET’s shared goal of helping to increase humanitarian assistance and mitigate acute food insecurity in monitored regions. Crop tour participants take photos of crops and field conditions, collect data, and connect with farmers to gain deeper insights into the agricultural season’s progression. Crop assessment teams then cross-check and combine satellite and on-the-ground observations to better understand expected national and regional crop production levels.

“This is a crucial activity in validating our data while also expressing the needs for humanitarian assistance and keeping information and resources flowing into these regions,” UCSB CHC Assistant Regional Field Scientist Pamella Mogane said.

Mid-seasonal crop assessments allow FEWS NET’s global scientists and early warning researchers to collaborate, compare findings, and improve early warning systems through in-person observations and data collection.

Looking ahead, FEWS NET crop tour participants envision expanding crop assessments to additional regions and fostering deeper connections with farmers to better gauge if they are receiving the support and information they need.

“My hope is that we continue doing great work by continuing to go out into the field, collect information, and provide people with the necessary information and resources to improve their resilience and better adapt to these conditions,” Mogane said.

FEWS NET will continue to monitor the ongoing drought in Southern Africa.