Vice President Kashim Shettima. Photo: State House

A few days ago, Nigeria and Brazil formalized a $1 billion agreement under the Green Imperative initiative, aimed at transforming Nigeria’s agricultural sector. The deal, signed at the State House in Abuja during the 2nd Nigeria–Brazil Strategic Dialogue Mechanism, was led by Vice President Kashim Shettima and Brazil’s Vice President Geraldo Alckmin.

Shettima described the partnership as a “shared dream between two major democracies,” emphasizing that the bond between the two nations is rooted not in geography but in a mutual aspiration for prosperity and progress.

This agreement comes amid Nigeria’s ongoing struggle with food insecurity. Despite multiple interventions—including the 2023 declaration of a state of emergency on food security—hunger remains widespread. According to a joint report by the FAO, UNICEF, and WFP, an estimated 33.1 million Nigerians are projected to face acute food insecurity during the June–August 2025 lean season.

Alarmingly, this includes 5.4 million children and nearly 800,000 pregnant or breastfeeding women at risk of acute malnutrition, with 1.8 million children expected to suffer from severe acute malnutrition.

Since 2023, the Tinubu administration has launched several initiatives, including the Renewed Hope Agricultural Mechanisation Programme, which reportedly deployed 2,000 tractors nationwide. The newly signed $1bn deal with Brazil builds on these efforts, promising mechanised equipment, training, and agricultural service centres to modernise farming, create jobs, and reduce reliance on food imports.

Brazil, in turn, stands to benefit through expanded agricultural technology exports and strengthened diplomatic ties with Africa’s largest economy. However, the agreement leaves several critical issues unaddressed.

While Shettima acknowledged land access as a major barrier, he failed to confront its root cause: the persistent conflict between Fulani herders and local farmers, particularly in key food-producing states like Benue. The agreement also lacks clarity on how equipment will be distributed, how communities will be selected, and what mechanisms will ensure transparency and accountability.

Political instability poses another risk. Without continuity and clear implementation frameworks, future administrations may deprioritise or abandon the initiative altogether—especially if short-term results are not visible.

Security concerns further complicate matters. Although authorities claim to have arrested suspects linked to recent attacks in Benue and the South-East, including herders and informants, meaningful prosecutions remain rare. Human rights lawyer Femi Falana has pointed out that past arrests have seldom led to convictions, highlighting systemic weaknesses in Nigeria’s justice system.

Despite having over 70 million hectares of arable land, Nigeria cultivates less than 10%. The 2025 federal budget allocates just 1.28% to agriculture—far below the 10% Maputo Declaration target. Nigeria also scores poorly on the AU’s Malabo Declaration indicators, with only 2.2% of public expenditure going to agriculture and negative growth in agricultural value added per hectare.

In contrast, countries like Brazil, India, and Vietnam have modernised their agricultural sectors through strategic investments in technology, research, and infrastructure. Brazil, once less developed than Nigeria, is now a global leader in soybean and beef exports.

For Nigeria to truly benefit from such international partnerships, it must first address foundational issues: insecurity in farming regions, outdated agricultural laws, weak institutions, and lack of transparency. Strengthening farmer cooperatives, investing in research and extension services, and aligning with international standards like the