South Africa’s agriculture sector faces disease outbreaks, rising input costs, and export pressures despite a positive grain production outlook.

South Africa’s agricultural sector entered 2026 on uncertain footing, with disease outbreaks, rising input costs, and global geopolitical tensions placing pressure on farmers and agribusinesses. According to the Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz), the first quarter of the year reflected a mixed performance, combining resilience in some areas with significant strain in others.

A major concern remains the continued spread of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD), which has disrupted livestock production and export activity. Agbiz Chief Economist Wandile Sihlobo noted that while vaccination efforts are gaining momentum across parts of the country, the process has been costly and challenging for farming businesses. Although vaccine supplies have started arriving, more are still needed, and many producers remain under financial pressure as containment efforts continue.

The impact of FMD has been compounded by restrictions from key export markets, limiting access for South African livestock products. While some trade has continued with the Middle East, this route has become increasingly uncertain due to regional instability. At the same time, the spread of African swine fever has added further strain to the sector. Unlike FMD, there is currently no effective vaccine available, making the disease harder to control and increasing risks for producers.

Input costs are also rising sharply, adding another layer of pressure. Fertiliser prices have increased due to geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains, particularly in the Middle East, which plays a critical role in nitrogen production. Fuel costs have also climbed, with fuel accounting for around 13% of farmers’ input expenses. As harvesting activity intensifies, especially in key sectors like citrus, these higher costs are expected to have a more pronounced impact. While farmers often absorb some of these increases, the effects are likely to filter through to consumers in the form of higher food prices.

Despite these challenges, there have been some positive developments. The renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has helped maintain preferential access to the United States market, supporting South African agricultural exports. This has been particularly beneficial for products such as citrus, nuts, and juice, which continue to enjoy competitive tariff conditions.

Overall, South Africa’s agriculture sector is navigating a complex environment. While favourable grain production prospects provide some optimism, ongoing disease outbreaks, rising costs, and export uncertainties continue to weigh heavily on the industry. The months ahead will be critical in determining whether the sector can stabilise and sustain growth under these challenging conditions.