African agriculture is entering a period where resilience is no longer defined by surviving a single difficult season but by the ability to operate through repeated and overlapping disruptions over extended periods, according to Loffie Brandt.

Writing on the changing risk environment facing the continent’s agricultural sector, Brandt argues that African producers are confronting a far more interconnected and unpredictable operating landscape shaped by climate volatility, geopolitical disruptions, rising input costs and increasingly fragile supply chains.

Climate volatility intensifying across farming regions

According to Brandt, climate change is altering traditional agricultural rhythms across Africa, with rainfall patterns becoming more erratic and weather events more extreme.

In many regions, rainfall now arrives in short, intense bursts followed by prolonged dry periods, while floods, mid-season droughts and highly localised weather disruptions are occurring more frequently.

The unpredictability of weather timing and distribution is forcing many farmers to assume some form of climate disruption will affect nearly every production season.

Global conflicts increasingly affecting African farms

Brandt also highlights the growing impact of geopolitical instability on African agriculture.

Conflict in the Middle East, for example, has contributed to higher freight costs and disruptions along major shipping routes, affecting exporters operating within time-sensitive supply chains. Even short logistical delays can reduce product quality, limit market access and compress already narrow margins for agricultural exporters.

Fertiliser and fuel costs driving pressure on producers

One of the most immediate challenges facing producers is the sharp rise in agricultural input costs, particularly fertiliser and energy.

Urea fertiliser prices reportedly climbed above US$700 per tonne earlier this year, while higher crude oil prices have pushed fuel costs upward across several African markets during critical planting and harvesting periods.

For grain producers already facing weak international prices due to large global stock levels, the simultaneous rise in fertiliser and fuel costs has significantly tightened margins.

Other agricultural sectors are also facing pressure from weakening export demand and changing market conditions, forcing producers to identify alternative buyers and distribution routes within increasingly compressed timeframes.

Financial flexibility emerging as a key resilience factor

Brandt argues that resilience increasingly depends on maintaining sufficient liquidity, operational agility and access to capital rather than simply enduring short-term shocks.

Businesses with stronger balance sheets and better access to financing generally retain more flexibility during periods of market stress, allowing them to respond more effectively when conditions shift.

As a result, many producers are placing greater emphasis on:

• cash flow management,
• crop insurance,
• geographic diversification,
• production diversification,
• operational efficiency, and agricultural technology investments.

These measures do not eliminate volatility but improve producers’ ability to absorb pressure and adapt to rapidly changing conditions.

Data-driven financing becoming more important

Brandt also notes that financial institutions will increasingly need to rely on more detailed operational farm data to assess agricultural risk accurately and support producers effectively.

Large volumes of agricultural data are already generated through yields, weather monitoring, planting conditions, input usage and production practices. However, the challenge remains integrating that information into financing and risk-assessment models in ways that create practical value for producers.

According to Brandt, African agriculture is entering an era where long-term resilience will depend heavily on access to capital and the ability to remain operational through prolonged instability, requiring producers, financiers and value-chain participants to rethink how agricultural businesses are structured before the next disruption occurs.