Escalating geopolitical tensions, growing food insecurity and mounting economic uncertainty are intensifying calls for African leaders to place agriculture at the centre of the continent’s development agenda.

The ongoing conflict involving Iran is the latest disruption to challenge Africa’s pursuit of economic growth, peace and prosperity. Combined with weakening multilateral cooperation, declining global aid flows and shifting international trade dynamics, these developments are prompting policymakers and development experts to reconsider traditional approaches to economic development.

Many now argue that transforming Africa’s agricultural sector could provide a pathway to greater resilience, food security and long-term prosperity.

Food Security Challenges Continue to Deepen

Food insecurity remains one of Africa’s most pressing challenges. According to data cited by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, approximately 307 million people across the continent were experiencing hunger in 2025, representing around 20% of Africa’s population.

At the same time, child stunting rates remain alarmingly high, with more than 30% of children under five affected. These figures highlight the long-term consequences of malnutrition and the growing risks facing future generations.

The situation is further complicated by declining humanitarian assistance, ongoing conflicts, forced migration and climate-related disruptions. The World Food Programme has repeatedly warned that reductions in international aid could worsen food insecurity in vulnerable regions across Africa.

Middle East Conflict Could Impact African Agriculture

Analysts warn that tensions in the Middle East could create additional challenges for African agriculture through several interconnected channels.

The most immediate threat is rising energy costs. Any disruption to crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could drive up fuel prices globally. Higher energy costs would increase production expenses for African farmers, many of whom rely heavily on diesel-powered machinery and transport systems.

Fertiliser supply is another major concern. Restrictions on the movement of urea and other fertiliser inputs could lead to shortages and higher prices, placing additional pressure on farmers across the continent. Given Africa’s dependence on imported fertilisers, such disruptions could affect agricultural productivity at every level, from smallholder farms to large commercial operations.

Trade Disruptions Pose Additional Risks

Agricultural trade remains a critical component of Africa’s food system and economy.

The continent imports cereals, edible oils, dairy products, sugar and other food commodities valued at nearly $100 billion annually. Any disruption to global shipping routes or increases in transport costs could affect food availability and affordability.

At the same time, agricultural exports remain a major source of foreign exchange earnings for many African economies. South Africa is a leading global citrus exporter, while countries such as Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda are major suppliers of coffee and tea. Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana dominate global cocoa markets, while Tanzania remains a significant exporter of spices and oilseeds.

Rising logistics costs and trade uncertainties could therefore impact both food imports and export competitiveness.

Rising Inequality and Political Pressure

Experts also warn that global economic shocks could deepen inequality between developed and developing economies.

African countries often have limited fiscal capacity to absorb external shocks, making them particularly vulnerable to rising food prices, energy inflation and supply chain disruptions. These pressures could undermine broader development goals, including the aspirations outlined in the African Union’s Agenda 2063 framework.

Economic hardship can also create political challenges. Higher living costs, unemployment and declining food security can weaken public confidence in governments while increasing the likelihood of social unrest.

Agriculture remains one of the largest sources of employment across Africa, particularly for young people. Any slowdown in agricultural growth could therefore have wider economic and social consequences.

AGRA Identifies Four Priorities for Agricultural Transformation

During a recent stakeholder workshop convened by the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA), participants identified four key priorities to strengthen Africa’s agricultural future.

Accelerating Agricultural Industrialisation

The first priority is expanding agricultural industrialisation through crop diversification, livestock development, support for small and medium-sized enterprises, and stronger value chains.

Participants highlighted post-harvest processing as a major opportunity for job creation, income growth and rural development. Strengthening the entire agricultural value chain—from production to processing and marketing—could significantly improve economic outcomes for farmers.

Expanding Intra-African Agricultural Trade

The second priority focuses on increasing trade within Africa through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Experts emphasised the importance of developing agricultural trade corridors that connect producers to regional markets. Existing transport corridors such as the North-South Corridor, the Djibouti-Addis Corridor and the Abidjan-Lagos Corridor offer valuable lessons for expanding agricultural trade and reducing market barriers across the continent.

Investing in Low-Carbon Agriculture and Technology

The third priority centres on sustainability and innovation.

As global markets increasingly favour low-carbon production systems, Africa has an opportunity to become a leader in climate-smart agriculture. Investments in sustainable farming practices, renewable energy, efficient logistics and environmentally friendly processing could improve competitiveness while reducing environmental impacts.

Artificial intelligence and digital technologies are also expected to play an increasingly important role in improving productivity, resource management and market access.

Positioning Agriculture as a Strategic Development Priority

Perhaps the most significant recommendation emerging from the discussions is the need to elevate agriculture within national development strategies.

Participants argued that agricultural prosperity should be recognised as a cornerstone of Africa’s peace, security and economic resilience. Increased political commitment, supportive policies and targeted investments could help unlock the sector’s full potential.

Agriculture Holds the Key to Africa’s Future

Despite growing global uncertainty, many experts believe agriculture remains one of Africa’s greatest opportunities for sustainable growth and development.

The continent possesses vast agricultural resources, a growing population and expanding markets. However, unlocking this potential will require stronger leadership, coordinated investment and a commitment to building resilient food systems capable of withstanding future shocks.

As geopolitical tensions, climate challenges and economic disruptions continue to reshape the global landscape, agriculture may increasingly become not only a food security imperative but also a foundation for Africa’s long-term prosperity and stability.