Africa’s agricultural future is facing growing uncertainty as global conflicts, economic instability and shifting geopolitical alliances place new pressure on food systems across the continent. Experts argue that the path to sustainable development, economic growth and long-term stability increasingly depends on whether African leaders elevate agriculture to a strategic priority.

Recent global developments, including the escalating conflict involving Iran, are adding to an already challenging environment marked by slowing economic growth, climate change, declining international aid and rising food insecurity.

Food Security Challenges Deepen Across Africa

Food insecurity remains one of Africa’s most pressing challenges. According to data cited by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, approximately 307 million Africans—around 20% of the continent’s population—experienced hunger in 2025.

At the same time, child stunting affects more than 30% of children under five, highlighting the long-term consequences of malnutrition on health, education and economic productivity.

Experts warn that declining humanitarian assistance, increasing conflicts, climate-related disasters and forced migration are creating a dangerous combination that threatens to worsen food insecurity across the continent.

Iran Conflict Raises New Risks for African Agriculture

Agricultural analysts believe the conflict involving Iran could create additional challenges for African food production through several channels.

The most immediate concern is rising energy prices resulting from disruptions to oil and liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Higher fuel costs could significantly increase agricultural production expenses, as many farming operations across Africa remain heavily dependent on diesel-powered machinery and transport systems.

The conflict may also affect global fertiliser supplies. Urea, a key fertiliser ingredient, could become more expensive and harder to access, creating challenges for farmers ranging from small household producers to large commercial operations.

Since many African countries rely heavily on imported fertilisers, any supply disruptions could negatively impact crop yields and food production.

Trade Disruptions Threaten Food Imports and Exports

Africa imports agricultural products worth approximately $100 billion annually, including wheat, rice, edible oils, dairy products, meat and sugar. These imports remain critical to food security in many countries.

At the same time, agricultural exports serve as a major source of foreign exchange earnings. Countries such as South Africa dominate global citrus exports, while Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda are leading exporters of coffee and tea. Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana remain major cocoa suppliers, while Tanzania plays an important role in oilseed and spice exports.

Any disruption to shipping routes, logistics networks or international trade flows could increase costs and reduce competitiveness for African exporters.

Economic Pressures Could Increase Inequality

Analysts also warn that global instability could widen economic disparities between developed and developing nations. Many African countries have limited capacity to absorb external shocks, making them more vulnerable to food price inflation, supply chain disruptions and reduced investment flows.

These challenges threaten progress toward long-term development goals, including those outlined in African Union’s Agenda 2063 framework.

Political Stability Linked to Agricultural Performance

Rising food prices and economic hardship can place significant pressure on governments, potentially increasing social unrest and political instability.

Agriculture remains a major employer across Africa, particularly for young people. Reduced investment, lower productivity and weaker agricultural growth could limit job creation opportunities and undermine efforts to improve livelihoods in rural communities.

Experts argue that strengthening agricultural value chains could help create employment, reduce poverty and support broader economic development.

Four Priorities for Africa’s Agricultural Transformation

Discussions led by Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa identified four key areas that could accelerate agricultural transformation across the continent.

1. Accelerate Agricultural Industrialisation

Experts recommend expanding value-added processing, diversifying agricultural production and supporting small and medium-sized enterprises. Post-harvest processing offers significant opportunities for job creation, investment and rural economic development.

2. Strengthen Intra-African Trade

The implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area remains central to improving regional agricultural trade.

Stakeholders also support the development of agricultural trade corridors that build on existing infrastructure networks such as the North-South Corridor, the Djibouti-Addis Corridor and the Abidjan-Lagos Corridor.

3. Invest in Climate-Smart Agriculture

As global markets increasingly focus on sustainability, Africa has an opportunity to become a leader in low-carbon agricultural production, processing, packaging and logistics.

The integration of technologies such as artificial intelligence could further improve productivity, efficiency and resilience across agricultural value chains.

4. Position Agriculture as a Strategic Priority

Perhaps the most important recommendation is for African governments to recognise agriculture as a core pillar of economic security, political stability and long-term prosperity.

Industry leaders argue that agriculture should be viewed not merely as a food production sector, but as a strategic engine for industrialisation, employment, trade and peacebuilding.

Agriculture Could Be Africa’s Strongest Economic Asset

Despite mounting global uncertainty, agriculture remains one of Africa’s most significant opportunities for inclusive growth. The continent possesses vast agricultural resources, a rapidly growing population and increasing demand for food both domestically and internationally.

Experts believe that by prioritising agricultural industrialisation, expanding regional trade, embracing climate-smart technologies and investing in value-added production, African countries can strengthen food security while building more resilient and prosperous economies.

As global challenges continue to reshape international markets, agriculture may prove to be the sector that determines whether Africa can achieve its long-term development ambitions.