South Africa’s agricultural sector could be better positioned to withstand the effects of a forecast El Niño weather pattern than during previous drought cycles, with healthy grain reserves and improved soil moisture expected to cushion food prices in 2027.

Weather experts have warned that El Niño conditions are likely to develop ahead of the country’s 2026/27 summer planting season. The climate phenomenon is typically associated with below-average rainfall across Southern Africa, raising concerns over crop production and rising food costs.

However, agricultural economists believe several factors distinguish the current situation from previous drought events that severely affected harvests and inflation.

One of the biggest advantages is the exceptional rainfall received during the 2025/26 growing season. Rainfall extended well beyond the normal summer season, continuing into May 2026 instead of ending in March. The extended rains significantly improved soil moisture, replenished groundwater reserves and increased dam levels used for irrigation.

These favourable conditions provide farmers with stronger moisture reserves ahead of the next planting season, increasing the likelihood that crops will establish successfully even if rainfall becomes below normal later in the season.

South Africa also enters the new production cycle with record grain supplies. The country’s Crop Estimates Committee forecasts a record summer grain and oilseed harvest of approximately 21.5 million tonnes, including an estimated 17.25 million tonnes of maize, the largest maize harvest ever recorded.

The sizeable harvest provides substantial carryover stocks that can help stabilise domestic grain supplies should weather conditions reduce production during the coming season.

This stands in sharp contrast to the severe 2015/16 drought, when maize production fell below domestic demand, forcing South Africa to import grain and contributing to food inflation that exceeded 10%.

Although El Niño could still reduce yields if dry conditions persist during critical crop development stages, current reserves are expected to soften any supply shortages and reduce pressure on consumer food prices.

The outlook is also encouraging for irrigated agriculture. Higher dam levels should support fruit and vegetable production, while improved grazing conditions following two consecutive wet seasons will benefit the livestock sector.

Agricultural analysts caution that weather remains unpredictable and the timing of rainfall will ultimately determine crop performance. Nevertheless, South Africa begins the 2026/27 season from a far stronger position than during previous drought years.

With healthy grain stocks, improved water resources and favourable soil conditions, the country appears better prepared to manage climate risks while protecting food security and limiting inflationary pressures.

Wandile Sihlobo is the presidential envoy on agriculture and land. He is also the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, and a senior research fellow in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University.