Twenty years after the launch of the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (Agra), a new assessment has raised serious questions about the results of the continent’s Green Revolution strategy, finding that gains in agricultural productivity, farmer incomes and food security have fallen well short of expectations.

Agricultural policy researcher Timothy Wise of Tufts University examined agricultural trends across Agra’s 13 focus countries between 2006 and 2024. His report, Requiem for Africa’s Green Revolution: An Updated Assessment of a Failing Agricultural Productivity Strategy, found that the Staple Yield Index increased by only 25% over the period, equivalent to annual growth of about 1.2% — slightly below the 1.3% annual growth recorded during the 12 years before Agra was established.

Maize yields increased by around 40%, despite Agra’s earlier ambition of doubling yields and incomes for 30 million farming households. Production growth was also driven heavily by expanding cultivated land rather than substantial improvements in productivity. Maize production increased 139%, with most of the increase coming from a 71% expansion in planted area, while yields rose by about 40%.

Similar trends were recorded in other major crops. Rice production increased 190%, supported by a 93% expansion in planted area, while soybean production grew 253% as cultivated area increased 187%, compared with only a 24% rise in yields. Cassava production also expanded, although yields declined by 21%.

Across the 13 countries, total cropland expanded by 46%, leading Wise to conclude that there is limited evidence of sustainable agricultural intensification. The findings suggest that expanding farmland has played a larger role in increasing output than achieving major productivity improvements on existing land.

The food security picture is equally concerning. Wise estimates that the number of undernourished people across Agra’s 13 focus countries increased by 58% between 2006 and 2024, reaching approximately 150 million people. Only Ethiopia and Ghana recorded declines in undernourishment, while the number of undernourished people across the group was about 55 million higher in 2024 than before Agra was launched.

The shift in crop production has also raised concerns. Millet and sorghum, traditionally important and relatively climate-resilient staples, saw their combined share of cropland decline from 25% to 17%. Millet production fell by 27%, driven by declines in both planted area and yields. The trend has increased the dominance of maize and other crops despite the nutritional and drought-tolerance advantages of traditional grains.

However, researchers caution against interpreting the findings as evidence that improved seeds, fertiliser and modern agricultural technologies do not work. Dr Wegayehu Fitawek, an agricultural economist and research fellow at the University of Pretoria, said the results instead demonstrate that technology cannot deliver sustainable agricultural transformation when critical supporting systems are missing.

Many African smallholder farmers operate in rain-fed environments and have limited access to irrigation, credit, machinery, extension services and reliable markets. Under these conditions, improved seeds and fertiliser may produce limited returns if farmers cannot manage water, maintain soil quality or access profitable markets.

Agra’s own 20-year Impact, Learning and Foresight review reaches a similar conclusion. While the organisation says agricultural output has roughly doubled in real terms since 2005, farmer incomes have also doubled and cereal yields have risen by about 40%, it acknowledges that these gains have been uneven and have not produced the transformation required to make farmers broadly prosperous.

The organisation identifies three major constraints: a productivity trap that limits reliable and resilient production; a value trap that prevents agricultural output from consistently translating into higher incomes, jobs, processing and trade; and a capability trap involving weaknesses in finance, institutions, data, coordination and accountability.

Agra says Africa’s agricultural sector remains structurally disadvantaged. Agricultural gross value added is estimated at about $1,500 per worker in Africa, compared with approximately $4,300 globally, while only around 3% of sub-Saharan Africa’s cropland is irrigated, compared with roughly 40% in Asia.

The assessment therefore points to a broader lesson for Africa’s agricultural transformation: increasing production alone is not enough. Farmers need access to irrigation, finance, infrastructure, storage, processing, markets, climate information and risk-management tools if productivity gains are to translate into sustainable income growth.

Fitawek argues that the continent should not abandon modern agricultural technologies, but combine them with crop diversification, soil-health management, agroforestry, water harvesting, improved water management and drought-tolerant varieties. Such measures could help farmers increase productivity while also reducing their exposure to climate shocks.

Agra’s review similarly calls for agriculture to be addressed through a wider development strategy involving finance, trade, water, energy, infrastructure, health, nutrition, education, climate, science and industry. It acknowledges that some of its interventions have struggled to remain effective once temporary funding, coordination mechanisms or individual champions were removed.

The organisation says it has supported more than 100 seed companies, over 650 improved seed varieties, 25,000 agro-dealers and 33,000 community extension workers. It also reports training five million farmers in soil-health and climate-smart practices and helping leverage approximately $691 million for national agricultural investment plans.

Wise, however, argues that the disappointing outcomes cannot simply be attributed to insufficient investment. He maintains that substantial public resources have continued to support input-driven Green Revolution programmes despite limited adoption, slow yield growth and cases where increased input costs have reduced the economic benefits to farmers.

Agra itself has increasingly shifted away from the original Green Revolution model. Former Agra president Agnes Kalibata said in a 2025 interview that the organisation’s rebranding reflected a recognition that the original approach could not continue unchanged.

The emerging consensus is therefore not that Africa should reject agricultural technology, but that technology must be embedded within a broader farmer-centred food system. Future agricultural strategies will need to focus not only on higher yields, but also on stable incomes, climate resilience, nutrition, market access and the ability of farmers to capture more value from what they produce.

For Africa, the central challenge is now moving from simply producing more food to building agricultural systems that allow farmers to prosper while protecting natural resources. With climate change, population growth and food insecurity intensifying pressure on the continent’s food systems, productivity, resilience and farmer incomes will need to advance together if Africa is to achieve the agricultural transformation it has long promised.