Africa’s agricultural transformation is facing renewed debate over how to increase food production while protecting traditional crops, dietary diversity and resilience to climate change.

In a recent analysis, researchers Million Belay and Timothy Wise argue that the promotion of commercial seeds, fertilisers and monoculture farming under Africa’s Green Revolution has contributed to the decline of several traditional crops, particularly millet.

Their assessment focuses on the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA), which was established in 2006 and is marking its 20th anniversary this year. The authors argue that programmes centred on commercial inputs and crops such as maize have not delivered the productivity gains originally promised and may have reduced incentives to grow more diverse traditional crops.

According to their analysis, maize production has increased substantially in countries involved in AGRA programmes, but much of the growth has come from an expansion in the amount of land planted to the crop rather than major improvements in yields.

The authors estimate that maize yields across the countries examined increased by about 40 percent over 18 years, compared with the 100 percent improvement they say was initially targeted. They also point to differences between countries, with some recording stronger maize yield growth while others, including Kenya, experiencing declines.

The researchers argue that the expansion of maize has occurred alongside declining production and investment in crops such as cassava, groundnuts and millet.

They highlight millet in particular because of its ability to withstand heat and drought while requiring relatively few external inputs. The crop has traditionally played an important role in food systems across some of Africa’s drier regions.

The analysis estimates that since 2006, millet production across the countries examined has fallen by 27 percent, while maize production more than doubled. Millet yields are estimated to have declined by 17 percent, while land allocated to millet fell by 12 percent as land under maize increased.

The authors argue that the decline of traditional crops presents a concern at a time when African farmers are facing increasingly unpredictable weather, rising production costs and volatility in global food and fertiliser markets.

They point to millet, sorghum, fonio, cowpeas, cassava and indigenous vegetables as examples of crops that contribute not only to agricultural biodiversity but also to local diets, food traditions and farming knowledge.

Greater crop diversity can also help farmers manage agricultural risks. Growing several crops can reduce exposure to drought, pests and diseases affecting individual varieties, while crop rotation can contribute to soil management and long-term farm productivity.

The debate does not mean that maize or other improved crops have no role in African agriculture. Instead, the authors argue that agricultural policies should provide farmers with a wider range of options and increase investment in crops that are well adapted to local conditions.

AGRA has increasingly highlighted the importance of nutritious and climate-adapted crops, with its seed programmes including crops such as millet, sorghum, cowpea and groundnuts.

The authors welcome this shift but argue that greater emphasis should also be placed on farmers’ ability to save, exchange and develop seeds, as well as protecting indigenous agricultural knowledge.

For African agriculture, the wider issue is how to balance productivity, commercialisation and food-market development with the need to maintain resilient and diverse farming systems.

As climate pressures increase, traditional crops could become increasingly important sources of food and income in regions where water availability, temperatures and growing conditions are becoming more difficult to predict.

The future of Africa’s food systems may therefore depend not only on producing more food, but also on ensuring that farmers have access to a diverse range of crops capable of supporting nutrition, livelihoods and resilience under changing conditions.