The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is beginning to ripple through global agricultural markets, raising concerns about fertiliser supply disruptions and rising food prices across Africa.

The crisis intensified after Iran blocked shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy and fertiliser exports. While global attention initially focused on oil markets, experts warn the conflict could have serious implications for African agriculture, which relies heavily on imported fertilisers.

Oil Price Surge Signals Wider Supply Chain Disruptions

Following the outbreak of hostilities involving the United States, Israel, and Iran on 28 February, global energy markets reacted sharply.

Brent crude oil prices briefly surged to $120 per barrel, nearly double their pre-conflict levels, before easing to around $87 per barrel, still about 20% higher than before the escalation.

However, the Gulf region is not only vital for oil and gas exports. Countries including Saudi Arabia and Qatar are also major exporters of key fertiliser components such as ammonia, urea, and phosphate, all essential for modern agriculture.

Natural gas from the region is another critical input used in fertiliser production worldwide.

African Union Warns of Supply Chain Risks

Mahmoud Ali Youssouf expressed concern about the situation, noting that attacks on key infrastructure were disrupting international trade routes.

The African Union warned that these disruptions could have far-reaching consequences for energy markets, global trade, and agricultural supply chains.

Fertiliser Prices Already Rising

According to Leeuwner Esterhuysen from Oxford Economics Africa, fertiliser markets reacted quickly to the conflict.

“Disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – a key route for fertiliser and natural gas – has tightened global supply conditions and pushed prices higher,” Esterhuysen said.

Fertiliser futures rose more than 10% in some markets on the first trading day after the conflict began.

Oxford Economics Africa forecasts that global fertiliser prices could rise by nearly 17% during the first half of 2026 compared with the same period last year.

Smallholder Farmers Face the Biggest Risk

Higher fertiliser prices could significantly impact smallholder farmers across Africa, who often operate on narrow profit margins.

If fertiliser becomes too expensive, farmers may reduce usage, which could lead to lower crop yields and declining plant health.

Over time, this could reduce food supply and push food prices higher, increasing the risk of food insecurity across the continent.

Countries Most Exposed to Fertiliser Disruptions

According to analysis by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, some African countries are particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions.

Sudan is considered the most exposed, with 54% of its seaborne fertiliser imports originating from the Gulf region.

Other countries likely to be affected include:

• Tanzania
• Somalia
• Kenya
• Mozambique

In West Africa, countries such as Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire could also face challenges because fertilisers are critical for export crops like cocoa.

Countries with large fertiliser subsidy programs, including Nigeria and Kenya, may also face increased fiscal pressure if governments attempt to shield farmers from rising costs.

Finding Alternative Fertiliser Suppliers

African importers may attempt to source fertilisers from alternative producers such as Russia, China, or Egypt.

However, analysts say this often results in higher prices and longer delivery times, especially during periods of global supply disruption.

Recent attacks on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz have further heightened uncertainty about how long supply disruptions could last.

Push for African Fertiliser Production

The crisis has renewed calls for greater fertiliser production within Africa to reduce dependence on imports.

Several countries have already begun investing in domestic fertiliser manufacturing capacity.

For example, Zambia has expanded fertiliser production with support from the African Development Bank.

Meanwhile, the Dangote Group has built the $2.5 billion Dangote Fertiliser Plant, now one of the largest urea plants in the world, in Nigeria.

The company has also announced plans to build a similar facility in Ethiopia.

Green Fertiliser Could Offer Long-Term Solution

Energy think tank RMI suggests Africa could also expand green ammonia production, which uses renewable energy instead of natural gas to produce fertiliser.

Such technologies could reduce the continent’s dependence on imported fertiliser inputs.

Building Long-Term Agricultural Resilience

Despite these initiatives, experts warn that building large-scale fertiliser production capacity across Africa will take time.

It requires major investment, reliable natural gas supplies, and improved logistics infrastructure.

Until then, Africa’s agricultural sector will remain vulnerable to global geopolitical shocks that disrupt fertiliser supply chains.

As global tensions continue to affect key trade routes, the latest crisis underscores the urgent need for greater agricultural resilience and self-sufficiency across Africa.