The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has urged governments, development partners and humanitarian organisations across Africa to strengthen preparedness measures as forecasts point to a significant intensification of the current El Niño weather pattern.

Climate experts believe the phenomenon could become one of the strongest El Niño events recorded since 1950, bringing a heightened risk of droughts, floods and agricultural disruption across many parts of the continent. The warning comes at a time when an estimated 149 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa are already experiencing severe food insecurity, according to the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises.

According to FAO, moderate El Niño conditions were already present in the Pacific Ocean during July 2026, with climate models indicating that the system is expected to strengthen over the coming months. Such changes are likely to alter rainfall patterns across Africa, creating different challenges for individual regions.

In West and Central Africa, El Niño is typically associated with reduced rainfall during the June to September growing season. Lower precipitation could limit crop production, reduce harvests and place additional pressure on food supplies, although the severity of impacts will differ between countries.

East Africa is expected to experience mixed conditions. Countries including South Sudan, Sudan, western Ethiopia, Eritrea and Uganda’s Karamoja region often record below-average rainfall during their primary cropping season, increasing the likelihood of poor harvests and declining agricultural output.

Meanwhile, parts of the eastern Horn of Africa, which rely heavily on the October to December rainy season, could receive above-normal rainfall. While increased precipitation may replenish water resources, it also raises the risk of flooding, infrastructure damage, crop losses and population displacement.

Southern Africa also faces significant concerns. FAO forecasts suggest below-average rainfall during the 2026/27 agricultural season, particularly between October and April. Since maize remains the region’s dominant staple crop and is highly sensitive to drought, prolonged dry conditions could reduce yields and threaten food availability.

Although favourable maize harvests recorded earlier this year in several Southern African countries may help cushion regional grain supplies, FAO cautioned that extended dry weather could still negatively affect rural livelihoods and market stability.

To strengthen preparedness, FAO continues to work with regional organisations, including the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) and the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD). Together, these organisations are monitoring climate developments and assessing their implications for agriculture, water management, disaster response and public health.

The organisation stressed that acting before disasters occur is considerably more effective and less expensive than responding after communities have already suffered losses.

In support of early intervention, FAO and the World Food Programme (WFP) have launched a joint US$202 million Anticipatory Action Appeal aimed at protecting approximately 8.8 million people across 22 countries, including 12 African nations.

The initiative will fund a range of preventive measures, including improved early warning systems, emergency cash assistance, distribution of drought-tolerant and flood-resistant seed varieties, livestock support programmes, strengthened flood protection infrastructure and expanded water storage facilities.

FAO noted that lessons from previous El Niño responses during 2023 and 2024 demonstrated the value of investing in preparedness. Early interventions not only reduce humanitarian costs but also help farming communities protect crops, livestock and livelihoods before climate shocks intensify.

As weather variability continues to increase across Africa, the agency believes that stronger climate preparedness, resilient farming systems and coordinated regional action will be essential to safeguarding food production and protecting vulnerable communities from future climate-related crises.