By Brandon Moss

Large parts of East Africa are heading towards a difficult harvest after one of the region’s poorest June-to-September rainy seasons in recent years, raising concerns about food supplies, livestock and rural incomes.

According to assessments from the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor, rainfall across northern and western parts of East Africa was exceptionally poor during the season, with deficits of between 100 and 300 millimetres recorded in affected areas.

The impact has been intensified by record-high temperatures, which have accelerated the loss of soil moisture and increased stress on crops and grazing land.

Kenya, Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and Somalia are among the countries facing the effects, with forecasts pointing towards below-average crop yields and reduced pasture availability.

Kenya’s maize sector is particularly exposed.

Forecasts from the Kenya ADAPT project, working with the country’s Ministry of Agriculture, indicate that maize yields in some western counties could be as much as 36% below average this season.

Western Kenya is one of the country’s major maize-producing regions, meaning a significant reduction in output could have consequences well beyond individual farms.

For households that depend on maize both as a source of food and income, a poor harvest can quickly create pressure on household budgets. Farmers may have less grain to sell, while reduced local supplies can contribute to higher prices and increase dependence on supplies from other regions or imports.

The situation is also putting pressure on pastoral communities.

For livestock farmers, rainfall is effectively the foundation of production. Poor rains reduce grass and other vegetation, leaving animals in poorer condition and reducing milk production. When conditions deteriorate, households may also be forced to sell livestock earlier than planned, often at weaker prices.

The current situation is particularly concerning because some of the affected areas have already experienced repeated drought conditions in recent years.

The severe drought between 2020 and 2023 demonstrated how quickly prolonged rainfall failures can develop into wider food and livelihood crises across the Horn of Africa.

This time, however, agricultural monitoring systems are providing governments with an earlier warning.

GEOGLAM’s Crop Monitor, together with Kenya’s ADAPT and GEOCIF forecasting systems, can identify emerging production problems before harvest figures become available.

That information could give governments more time to prepare for potential food shortages, assess import requirements and direct assistance towards the area’s most at risk.

For farmers, early intervention could also mean access to drought-tolerant seed, livestock support and other measures before the effects of a poor harvest become more severe.

The challenge is turning information into action.

Early warning systems can identify where crops are failing, but they cannot by themselves move food, finance farmers or restore lost rainfall. Governments, development agencies and humanitarian organisations still need the resources and logistics required to respond quickly.

The latest forecasts also underline a broader issue facing African agriculture.

Farmers are increasingly having to operate in conditions where historical rainfall patterns are becoming less reliable. That makes agricultural resilience more important than simply recovering from one failed season.

Investment in drought-tolerant varieties, water harvesting, irrigation, soil management, livestock resilience and better climate information will become increasingly important across the region.

For East Africa’s farmers, the immediate priority is getting through another difficult season.

For policymakers, however, the warning is bigger.

A poor rainy season can become a food security crisis when millions of farmers and livestock producers have limited capacity to absorb another shock.

This year’s forecasts provide something previous crises often lacked: time.

Whether that warning is converted into timely support will determine how severely the failed rains ultimately affect East Africa’s food supply and rural economies.