South Africa’s agricultural sector is preparing for the possible return of El Niño during the 2026/27 summer planting season, but experts believe the country is entering the season in a stronger position than during previous drought cycles.

While weather forecasts indicate El Niño conditions are likely to develop ahead of the summer crop season, improved soil moisture, healthy grazing conditions and record grain harvests are expected to help cushion the impact on crop production and food security.

Improved Soil Moisture Offers Early Advantage

Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), said concerns about El Niño’s potential impact on agriculture and food price inflation in 2027 are understandable, particularly as current forecasts suggest a strong weather event could coincide with the country’s summer planting season beginning in mid-October.

However, Sihlobo explained that South Africa has benefited from several consecutive seasons influenced by La Niña, which brought above-average rainfall and significantly improved agricultural conditions.

Rainfall during the 2024/25 season continued through April 2025, while the 2025/26 season extended into May 2026—well beyond the country’s normal summer rainfall period, which typically ends in March.

Although extended rainfall can sometimes affect crop quality, Sihlobo noted that South Africa has experienced few quality issues, with the latest Crop Estimates Committee projections pointing to a record summer crop harvest for the 2025/26 season.

The prolonged rains have also replenished soil moisture and groundwater reserves, providing favourable conditions ahead of the next planting season.

According to Sihlobo, farmers are expected to begin planting with better-than-normal soil moisture, which could support seed germination and early crop development even if rainfall becomes below average under El Niño conditions.

Rainfed Agriculture Remains Vulnerable

Despite the favourable starting conditions, Sihlobo cautioned that rainfall distribution during the growing season will remain critical.

Around 80% of South Africa’s field crops are produced under rainfed conditions, making them dependent on timely rainfall throughout the season rather than irrigation.

The livestock sector, however, is also entering the season in a relatively strong position after benefiting from abundant grazing conditions created by the prolonged rainfall.

Sihlobo believes these factors should help reduce the immediate impact of El Niño compared with previous drought periods.

He added that while drought conditions could increase production costs for farmers, predictions of sharp food price increases may overlook the country’s improved soil moisture, healthy grain supplies and stronger agricultural buffers.

Experts Urge Caution Rather Than Panic

Dr Christiaan Mostert, from the University of Pretoria’s Department of Agricultural Economics, said South Africa should regard the developing El Niño as a serious agricultural risk but not an immediate food security crisis.

International climate forecasts indicate El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen during the 2026/27 summer rainfall season, increasing drought risks across parts of Southern Africa, including Namibia, Botswana and South Africa.

Mostert said South Africa currently benefits from several important safeguards, including healthy dam levels, strong grain stocks, improved grazing conditions and adequate soil moisture.

However, he warned that if El Niño becomes particularly severe and rainfall remains below normal throughout the season, pressure on agricultural production could intensify during 2027.

He added that the greatest risk may emerge during the 2027/28 production season if existing moisture reserves and grain stocks are depleted without sufficient recovery rainfall.

Strong Harvest Provides Additional Buffer

Professor Simphiwe Madikizela, an economist at the University of South Africa (Unisa), also believes there is little reason for immediate concern.

He said South Africa’s recent strong rainfall seasons and excellent harvests have created a solid foundation for the upcoming planting season.

According to Madikizela, current soil moisture levels remain favourable, while above-average winter rainfall in many areas has further strengthened agricultural conditions.

He noted that a prolonged multi-year El Niño event would present greater challenges, but at present there is no reason for panic.

With record crop production, healthy grain reserves and improved environmental conditions, South Africa’s agricultural sector appears better equipped to manage the early stages of the anticipated El Niño than it has been in previous drought cycles.