African farmers are being urged to prepare for potentially challenging growing conditions this November, as climate forecasts point to below-normal rainfall and above-average temperatures across large parts of Southern Africa during the 2026/27 agricultural season.

The warning comes as farmers prepare land, purchase inputs and establish summer crops, with the timing and distribution of rainfall expected to play a critical role in determining planting success.

The Southern African Development Community (SADC), through its regional climate outlook released in August, indicated an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall between October and December 2026 across southern Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Namibia, Botswana and much of South Africa, as well as parts of Angola, Eswatini and Lesotho. Drier conditions are also forecast to persist across several of these areas into early 2027.

The developing El Niño weather pattern is a major factor behind the forecast. While its effects vary across countries and farming regions, the outlook raises concerns for rain-fed agriculture, particularly where farmers depend on seasonal rainfall to establish maize, sorghum, groundnuts and other staple crops.

For farmers, the challenge may not simply be receiving less rain, but experiencing irregular rainfall, prolonged dry spells and high temperatures during critical stages of crop development.

Planting Decisions Could Make a Difference

The first substantial rainfall can encourage farmers to begin planting, but an early shower does not necessarily mean that the rainy season has become established. If rainfall stops for an extended period after planting, seeds may fail to germinate properly or young crops may struggle to survive.

Farmers should therefore monitor local weather forecasts and rainfall patterns before making planting decisions. Seasonal forecasts provide an indication of broad regional risks, but they cannot determine exactly when rain will begin on an individual farm.

The October 2026 crop-monitoring outlook highlights the risk of poor crop establishment in parts of Southern Africa, including southern Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana and areas of Angola and South Africa, where low soil moisture and below-average rainfall are concerns. <Link url=”https://www.cropmonitor.org/special-reports” title=”GEOGLAM Crop Monitor’s El Niño outlook”/>.

Where conditions allow, farmers can consider planting strategies suited to their local rainfall patterns, including selecting appropriate crop varieties and staggering planting dates to spread risk. Decisions should take account of local extension advice, seed availability, soil conditions and the expected length of the growing season.

Water and Soil Management Become More Important

Conserving moisture already present in the soil will be particularly important if rainfall is limited or unevenly distributed.

Practices such as retaining crop residues where appropriate, reducing unnecessary soil disturbance, controlling weeds early and using suitable soil-cover methods can help limit moisture loss. Contour farming and other erosion-control measures may also help retain water on sloping land when rain does arrive.

Farmers with access to irrigation should assess available water supplies, equipment and operating costs before the season advances. Careful water scheduling can help prioritise crops and growth stages that are most sensitive to moisture stress.

Water management also matters for livestock producers. Reviewing water supplies, pasture availability and feed reserves ahead of prolonged hot or dry periods can help reduce the risk of livestock losses and expensive emergency purchases.

Input Costs and Crop Choices Need Careful Planning

An uncertain rainy season also makes financial planning essential. Spending heavily on seed, fertiliser and chemicals before assessing seasonal conditions can expose farmers to significant losses if crops fail or yields fall below expectations.

Farmers should compare input costs against realistic yield expectations and consider whether their crop choices suit the likely conditions. Drought-tolerant varieties may offer an option in some areas, but their suitability depends on local conditions, seed availability and the crop’s intended market.

Diversifying production can also reduce reliance on a single crop. Depending on local markets and resources, farmers may consider combining suitable staple crops with legumes, livestock or other income-generating activities. Such decisions should be based on production costs, available skills and realistic market opportunities rather than diversification alone.

Agricultural extension officers, seed suppliers and local meteorological services can help farmers interpret forecasts and identify suitable practices for their specific production areas.

The Outlook Is Not the Same Across Africa

Although the Southern African outlook raises concerns, farmers should not assume that all African countries will experience the same conditions.

SADC’s forecast favours normal to above-normal rainfall in parts of the northern region, including most of Tanzania, eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo and the extreme northern parts of Malawi and Zambia. This highlights the importance of using country-specific and local forecasts rather than applying one regional prediction to the entire continent.

Seasonal predictions also describe probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. Farmers should continue monitoring updated forecasts, actual rainfall, soil moisture and crop conditions as November progresses.

For African agriculture, the coming month will be an important period for preparation and risk management. Timely planting decisions, moisture conservation, careful input spending and early livestock planning could help farmers reduce exposure to adverse weather.

The priority is not to abandon the growing season, but to approach it with better information, realistic expectations and production strategies suited to local conditions.