Malawi is expected to record a stronger maize harvest in the 2025/26 agricultural season, offering relief after last year’s poor production, but the country is still projected to face a maize deficit despite the improvement.

According to the latest assessment by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), national maize production is expected to return to average levels following generally favourable rainfall across much of the country during the growing season.

Harvesting began in April in the Southern Region and has since expanded across central and northern districts, boosting household food availability and increasing supplies in local markets.

The Reserve Bank of Malawi estimates maize production will reach approximately 3.3 million metric tonnes this season, up from 2.9 million metric tonnes harvested in 2024/25. The projected increase of nearly 14% represents a significant recovery for the country’s most important staple crop.

Despite the rebound, production is still expected to fall about 200,000 metric tonnes short of Malawi’s estimated annual maize requirement of 3.5 million metric tonnes, leaving the country reliant on strategic grain reserves, imports, irrigation harvests and private sector stocks to meet demand.

The Ministry of Agriculture estimates that rain-fed production contributes around 80% of total maize output, while irrigation and residual moisture farming account for the remaining 20%.

Although overall production prospects are positive, weather-related challenges affected yields in several areas. FEWS NET reported that below-average rainfall and prolonged dry spells during the critical flowering stage reduced production in the Southern Lakeshore, Middle Shire and Lower Shire livelihood zones.

In addition, heavy rainfall and flash flooding between March 15 and 20 damaged crops in parts of central and southern Malawi, further reducing yields in affected communities.

As a result, some households in vulnerable regions are expected to harvest below-average crops and may continue to experience food insecurity despite the improved national outlook.

The larger harvest is already easing pressure on maize prices. FEWS NET reported that average maize grain prices fell by approximately 15% between March and April, declining from K1,025 per kilogramme to K892 per kilogramme as fresh supplies entered the market.

The Southern Region recorded the most significant price declines, with maize prices dropping by about 25% due to increased market availability and reduced demand.

However, prices remain substantially higher than historical levels. Current maize prices are still around 85% above the average recorded between 2022 and 2024, limiting purchasing power for many low-income households that continue to depend on market purchases for food.

Agricultural policy expert Leonard Chimwaza has called for the release of updated crop estimates, noting that accurate production figures are essential for government planning, food security interventions and private sector decision-making.

While the maize sector is showing signs of recovery, Malawi continues to face the challenge of closing its production gap and ensuring affordable food access. The country’s ability to manage the expected deficit and stabilize food prices will remain critical to national food security in the months ahead.