South Africa recorded a $2.14 billion agricultural trade surplus in the second quarter of 2026, despite a 28% year-on-year decline in agricultural exports to the United States as exporters navigated tariff uncertainty and diplomatic tensions.

A joint quarterly report by AgriCulture South Africa (AgriSA) and the Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz) shows that total agricultural exports increased by 9.1% year-on-year to $4.12 billion. Imports rose by 6.4% to $1.98 billion, while the sector’s trade surplus expanded by 11.6%.

Strong citrus shipments and horticultural performance were central to the growth, with horticultural products accounting for 51.3% of total agricultural export sales.

The figures indicate that South African agricultural exporters maintained overall growth despite weaker trade with some established markets, particularly the United States.

US exports fall amid tariff uncertainty

Agricultural exports to the US declined by 28% during the quarter. Part of the decrease was attributed to exporters bringing shipments forward into the first quarter in anticipation of possible tariff changes.

Trade relations between Washington and Pretoria have also faced pressure amid diplomatic disagreements, including discussions around South Africa’s land policy and recent US visa restrictions.

Although the US Congress voted to extend South Africa’s eligibility under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) through 2028, implementation still requires executive action by President Donald Trump.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has urged the country to prepare for the possibility of losing duty-free access to the US market. He acknowledged that the congressional decision to retain South Africa under AGOA still requires action from the executive branch.

Ramaphosa called for national resilience, saying the country should prepare for a possible change rather than regard it as an economic catastrophe.

Asian and Middle Eastern markets gain importance

South Africa is increasingly looking towards Asia and the Middle East to diversify its agricultural export destinations and reduce reliance on traditional markets.

During the second quarter, agricultural exports to Vietnam increased by 153% year-on-year, while shipments to Saudi Arabia rose by 90%. Exports to China also grew by 30%.

Trade with China received additional support following Beijing’s introduction of zero-tariff access for African agricultural goods in May 2026. However, South African red meat exports remain suspended because of the ongoing foot-and-mouth disease outbreak.

The expansion into alternative markets is helping offset weaker demand from some established destinations, although exporters continue to face challenges linked to market access and logistics.

AgriSA Chief Executive Officer Johann Kotzé said the second-quarter results demonstrated the industry’s ability to adapt to a difficult global trading environment.

He cautioned that sustaining export growth would depend on addressing domestic constraints, particularly foot-and-mouth disease, port and rail performance, and phytosanitary market access.

Agbiz researcher Charmaine ka Makhaya similarly highlighted the importance of market diversification, noting that emerging opportunities in Asia and the Middle East could strengthen South Africa’s agricultural export prospects.

The latest figures underline the importance of expanding trade relationships while improving the domestic infrastructure and regulatory conditions needed to keep agricultural exports competitive.